TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Sabuka vs Michael Hasman 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811116119711611
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMichael Hasman to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Michael Hasman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Michael Hasman at 58.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 0–2 Michael Hasman David Sabuka has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2958.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hasman
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1395 vs Hasman 1404
Hasman
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 60% vs Hasman 20%
Sabuka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 70% vs Hasman 30%
Sabuka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +3 · Hasman +1
Sabuka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Hasman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hasman form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 2.25 / Hasman 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Hasman)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228937
Sabuka2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 21 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Hasman1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 38 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSabuka0wins
AwayHasman2wins
Hasman leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSabukaHasmanS − HBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match23.539.5−16.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaHasmanBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 524 vs 70 / 13047.9%53.9%251 / 524 vs 70 / 130Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HasmanSabuka 2.25/Hasman 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Hasman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hasman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 5 · 08:39D. Sabuka173590M. Hasman331111113
LAug 5 · 07:30D. Sabuka30515641M. Hasman46111311113
D. Sabuka10
WOct 2 · 10:30D. Sabuka3.25911711113M. Melisek1.3311811872WOct 2 · 09:30D. Sabuka1.5711114113J. Jnr2.25271191WSep 30 · 09:08D. Sabuka2.001214123M. Obraz1.731012100LSep 30 · 08:00M. Obraz1.8311711113D. Sabuka1.83811791LSep 30 · 07:00A. Dvoracek1.73118118123D. Sabuka2.00811611102WSep 30 · 05:30P. Cizek1.8351111692D. Sabuka1.83115611113WSep 28 · 09:10D. Sabuka1.7371115113M. Cmil2.001181381WSep 28 · 08:00D. Sabuka1.837101311113L. Boura1.83111211962WSep 28 · 06:30M. Cmil1.8311461232D. Sabuka1.838111110113LSep 28 · 06:00M. Vydra2.25811116113D. Sabuka1.5711471182
M. Hasman10
WOct 2 · 11:00M. Hasman1.7311114123J. Jnr2.009611101LOct 2 · 10:00M. Hasman1.736101191M. Melisek2.0011124113LSep 22 · 16:39K. Polak1.67111489113M. Hasman2.10512111192LSep 22 · 15:30M. Hasman1.8398110K. Polak1.831111133LSep 22 · 14:30M. Hasman2.50113951M. Vana1.5091111113LSep 22 · 13:30M. Hasman1.837290O. Plyska1.831111113WSep 16 · 12:29M. Melisek1.916101111102M. Hasman1.80111268123LSep 16 · 11:30M. Hasman1.80412691M. Melisek1.91111011113WSep 16 · 10:30M. Hasman2.001022811113M. Vorel1.73122011722LSep 16 · 09:30M. Hasman1.5359111172A. Dvoracek2.38111166113
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