TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Rochowanski vs Petr Wasik 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111210411119118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:44 and never touched: 69.2% is still 69.2%
Graded at full timePetr Wasik to win
69.2%
69.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Rochowanski above · Petr Wasik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Petr Wasik at 69.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Rochowanski 2–3 Petr Wasik Jan Rochowanski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4469.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 4.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Wasik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rochowanski 1692 vs Wasik 1780
Wasik
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rochowanski 80% vs Wasik 40%
Rochowanski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rochowanski 60% vs Wasik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rochowanski +3 · Wasik +1
Rochowanski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Wasik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wasik form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRochowanski 3.00 / Wasik 1.363
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Wasik)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250966
Rochowanski3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 24 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Wasik1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 47 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRochowanski2wins
AwayWasik3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderWasik leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRochowanskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayWasik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rochowanski2Wasik3n = 5Wasik took 3 of 5
S2Rochowanski1Wasik4n = 5Wasik took 4 of 5
S3Rochowanski2Wasik3n = 5Wasik took 3 of 5
S4Rochowanski1Wasik2n = 3Wasik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricRochowanskiWasikR − WBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.040.0−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRochowanskiWasikBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 185 vs 89 / 14949.7%59.7%92 / 185 vs 89 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WasikRochowanski 3.00/Wasik 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.2%
Wasik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rochowanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 14 · 06:15J. Rochowanski321131261P. Wasik4261114113
LJul 9 · 06:15J. Rochowanski187830P. Wasik331111113
WJul 1 · 05:15J. Rochowanski47126125123P. Wasik5210111011102
LApr 13 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2486100P. Wasik341111123
WApr 13 · 07:45J. Rochowanski4461411133P. Wasik3911125111
J. Rochowanski10
WOct 6 · 11:15M. Stibor1.801171171J. Rochowanski1.9113115113WOct 6 · 10:45J. Rochowanski2.6311111211113L. Dobias1.4451314892WSep 30 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2.381111113M. Ullman1.539990WSep 30 · 07:45R. Pisa1.731477101J. Rochowanski2.00121111123WSep 30 · 06:45M. Vana2.2011119752J. Rochowanski1.61691111113LSep 30 · 05:15M. Ullman1.611111113J. Rochowanski2.209920WSep 29 · 12:19M. Myler1.7315670J. Rochowanski2.001711113LSep 29 · 11:15J. Rochowanski2.00711571M. Myler1.7311911113WSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841LSep 29 · 09:15J. Rochowanski1.8081151172L. Veigl1.91118119113
P. Wasik10
WOct 6 · 11:45P. Wasik1.8312116113L. Dobias1.831091151WOct 6 · 10:15M. Stibor2.7521140P. Wasik1.401113113WOct 5 · 08:23R. Pisa3.75119841P. Wasik1.2591111113LOct 5 · 07:15P. Wasik1.8311811862L. Dobias1.83911911113WOct 5 · 06:15P. Wasik1.401111113R. Pisa2.753950LOct 5 · 05:15P. Wasik1.501151031V. Burylov2.5061112113LSep 24 · 08:19P. Wasik1.9184121232T. Hlavacek1.8011111010113WSep 24 · 07:15T. Hlavacek1.67681471P. Wasik2.10111112113LSep 24 · 06:45P. Wasik1.731112791M. Bouska2.0081411113LSep 24 · 05:45P. Wasik1.36121112692M. Stibor3.001461011113
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