TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Stibor vs Jan Rochowanski 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113711115711––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Jan Rochowanski below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Michal Stibor at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 3–5 Jan Rochowanski Michal Stibor has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stibor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Rochowanski
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1657 vs Rochowanski 1726
Rochowanski
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 20% vs Rochowanski 100%
Rochowanski
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 30% vs Rochowanski 70%
Rochowanski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -4 · Rochowanski +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stibor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rochowanski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.80 / Rochowanski 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stibor)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250941
Stibor1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 63 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Rochowanski1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 24 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStibor3wins
AwayRochowanski5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderRochowanski leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStiborn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRochowanski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor2Rochowanski6n = 8Rochowanski took 6 of 8
S2Stibor5Rochowanski3n = 8Stibor took 5 of 8
S3Stibor5Rochowanski3n = 8Stibor took 5 of 8
S4Stibor0Rochowanski7n = 7Rochowanski took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away563%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricStiborRochowanskiS − RBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match38.538.4+0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborRochowanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 335 vs 95 / 18852.2%50.5%175 / 335 vs 95 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StiborStibor 1.80/Rochowanski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rochowanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 6 · 11:15M. Stibor361171171J. Rochowanski4013115113
LSep 29 · 10:15M. Stibor31811841J. Rochowanski3811511113
WJul 14 · 07:30M. Stibor49911117113J. Rochowanski4611971182
LJul 8 · 06:45M. Stibor311011551J. Rochowanski4012611113
LJul 1 · 08:43M. Stibor409111191J. Rochowanski4211137113
WJul 1 · 07:45M. Stibor331111113J. Rochowanski226790
WApr 29 · 10:45M. Stibor49811118113J. Rochowanski3711961102
LApr 20 · 11:15M. Stibor391179121J. Rochowanski4261111143
M. Stibor10
LOct 6 · 10:15M. Stibor2.7521140P. Wasik1.401113113LOct 6 · 09:15M. Stibor2.259990L. Dobias1.571111113LSep 30 · 12:14M. Stibor1.83141211672L. Veigl1.831610511113LSep 30 · 11:45L. Dobias1.5791111113M. Stibor2.25113571WSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113LSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960LSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771WSep 29 · 11:45M. Stibor1.73114116113L. Veigl2.0061131152LSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841WSep 29 · 09:45M. Myler2.387740M. Stibor1.531111113
J. Rochowanski10
WOct 6 · 10:45J. Rochowanski2.6311111211113L. Dobias1.4451314892WOct 6 · 09:45J. Rochowanski3.00812411113P. Wasik1.36111011982WSep 30 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2.381111113M. Ullman1.539990WSep 30 · 07:45R. Pisa1.731477101J. Rochowanski2.00121111123WSep 30 · 06:45M. Vana2.2011119752J. Rochowanski1.61691111113LSep 30 · 05:15M. Ullman1.611111113J. Rochowanski2.209920WSep 29 · 12:19M. Myler1.7315670J. Rochowanski2.001711113LSep 29 · 11:15J. Rochowanski2.00711571M. Myler1.7311911113WSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841LSep 29 · 09:15J. Rochowanski1.8081151172L. Veigl1.91118119113
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