TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Sykora vs Jiri Melichar 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511115119113––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:12 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sykora above · Jiri Melichar below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 66 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Jiri Melichar at 55.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H David Sykora 3–2 Jiri Melichar Jiri Melichar has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:1255.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Melichar
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sykora 1533 vs Melichar 1538
Melichar
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sykora 60% vs Melichar 80%
Melichar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sykora 70% vs Melichar 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sykora +2 · Melichar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Melichar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melichar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSykora 2.10 / Melichar 1.666
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Melichar)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247911
Sykora2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 37 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back33% 22 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 37
Melichar1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSykora3wins
AwayMelichar2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSykora leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSykoran = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMelichar50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sykora1Melichar4n = 5Melichar took 4 of 5
S2Sykora3Melichar2n = 5Sykora took 3 of 5
S3Sykora2Melichar3n = 5Melichar took 3 of 5
S4Sykora1Melichar3n = 4Melichar took 3 of 4
S5Sykora3Melichar0n = 3Sykora took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSykoraMelicharS − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match40.841.2−0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSykoraMelicharBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 506 vs 45 / 7854.6%57.7%276 / 506 vs 45 / 78Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharSykora 2.10/Melichar 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sykora won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 2 · 17:50D. Sykora511111711113J. Melichar4513811942
LOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora32781161J. Melichar3811115113
WAug 16 · 18:35D. Sykora43411116113J. Melichar3911561162
WAug 16 · 16:55D. Sykora47111366113J. Melichar46511111182
LNov 8 · 11:55D. Sykora31108130J. Melichar381211153
D. Sykora10
WOct 5 · 15:20D. Sykora1.91111213153J. Hendrych1.8091015131WOct 5 · 14:20D. Sykora1.5311311113Z. Zahradka2.38711771LOct 4 · 18:05D. Sykora1.958670O. Varecka1.751111113WOct 4 · 16:50O. Varecka1.67111013892D. Sykora2.103121111113LOct 4 · 15:50D. Sykora1.833690R. Jamrich1.831111113WOct 4 · 14:20J. Kulveit2.0011990D. Sykora1.731311113WOct 2 · 17:50J. Melichar1.6013811942D. Sykora2.201111711113WOct 2 · 16:50J. Dvorak2.637780D. Sykora1.441111113LOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:20A. Kral2.63912841D. Sykora1.44111011113
J. Melichar10
WOct 5 · 15:50Z. Zahradka2.5010840J. Melichar1.501211113WOct 5 · 14:50J. Melichar1.671111113J. Hendrych2.105970LOct 2 · 17:50J. Melichar1.6013811942D. Sykora2.201111711113WOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113WOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:50J. Melichar2.1091111113J. Dvorak1.67119681LSep 28 · 18:40J. Kulveit1.8311114113J. Melichar1.83591161LSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 16:25J. Kulveit2.1011119113J. Melichar1.67651181WSep 28 · 15:25J. Melichar1.441212113R. Jamrich2.63101080
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