TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Varecka vs David Sykora 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11310121311811911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:30 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Varecka to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Varecka above · David Sykora below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Ondrej Varecka at 56.6%
99 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Varecka 14–8 David Sykora David Sykora has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:3056.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Varecka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-8 in 22
Varecka
Wrong
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecka 1486 vs Sykora 1521
Sykora
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecka 60% vs Sykora 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecka 30% vs Sykora 50%
Sykora
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecka +2 · Sykora -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Varecka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sykora form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecka 1.666 / Sykora 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Varecka)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13243242
Varecka1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 92 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it75% 65 of 87
Sykora2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 36 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back33% 21 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecka7wins
AwaySykora3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVarecka leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecka100%6 of 6
AwaySykora75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecka6Sykora4n = 10Varecka took 6 of 10
S2Varecka8Sykora2n = 10Varecka took 8 of 10
S3Varecka5Sykora5n = 10split evenly
S4Varecka4Sykora4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVareckaSykoraV − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.034.7+4.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVareckaSykoraBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 236 vs 273 / 50255.5%54.4%131 / 236 vs 273 / 502Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VareckaVarecka 1.67/Sykora 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Varecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sykora won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 22:30O. Varecka311011641D. Sykora3712311113
WAug 12 · 18:55O. Varecka531191111113D. Sykora4781161392
LAug 10 · 12:20O. Varecka357111251D. Sykora4511914113
LAug 4 · 11:20O. Varecka378121071D. Sykora44111012113
WJul 30 · 21:29O. Varecka351111133D. Sykora2485110
WJul 30 · 19:50O. Varecka4111116133D. Sykora368611111
WJul 20 · 12:20O. Varecka4011711113D. Sykora30411871
WJul 19 · 14:50O. Varecka4211119113D. Sykora31881141
WJul 16 · 13:48O. Varecka4291111113D. Sykora33116791
WJul 16 · 12:50O. Varecka341111123D. Sykora2073100
O. Varecka10
WOct 4 · 15:20J. Kulveit1.8011119452O. Varecka1.91771111113WOct 4 · 14:50R. Jamrich2.007980O. Varecka1.731111113LSep 28 · 18:10O. Varecka2.0011351192R. Jamrich1.73911115113WSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 15:55O. Varecka1.57711581R. Jamrich2.2511611113LSep 28 · 14:55O. Varecka1.80119571J. Kulveit1.9161111113LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka1.839980V. Hejda Jr1.831111113
D. Sykora10
LOct 4 · 15:50D. Sykora1.833690R. Jamrich1.831111113WOct 4 · 14:20J. Kulveit2.0011990D. Sykora1.731311113WOct 2 · 17:50J. Melichar1.6013811942D. Sykora2.201111711113WOct 2 · 16:50J. Dvorak2.637780D. Sykora1.441111113LOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:20A. Kral2.63912841D. Sykora1.44111011113LSep 17 · 17:30D. Sykora1.709630M. Dvorak2.021111113LSep 17 · 16:20D. Sykora1.83116761J. Hendrych1.8391111113LSep 17 · 15:20D. Sykora3.00910100M. Sochor1.361112123WSep 17 · 14:20D. Sykora1.8311111113M. Dvorak1.83841151
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