TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Kolesnykov vs Serhii Solomko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9117111141151012
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:56 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeValerii Kolesnykov to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Serhii Solomko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 91 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Valerii Kolesnykov at 56.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 22–13 Serhii Solomko Serhii Solomko has won 13 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5656.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolesnykov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-13 in 35
Kolesnykov
Wrong
gap of 9 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1581 vs Solomko 1561
Kolesnykov
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 40% vs Solomko 80%
Solomko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 40% vs Solomko 60%
Solomko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov +2 · Solomko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kolesnykov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Solomko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 1.666 / Solomko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kolesnykov)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245335
Kolesnykov1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 89 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it78% 59 of 76
Solomko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 120 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back25% 35 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnykov6wins
AwaySolomko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolesnykov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov100%4 of 4
AwaySolomko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov4Solomko6n = 10Solomko took 6 of 10
S2Kolesnykov6Solomko4n = 10Kolesnykov took 6 of 10
S3Kolesnykov5Solomko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolesnykov4Solomko0n = 4Kolesnykov took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnykovSolomkoK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.233.6+1.6per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovSolomkoBasisWin rate · lifetime350 / 661 vs 545 / 104953%52%350 / 661 vs 545 / 1049Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnykovKolesnykov 1.67/Solomko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Kolesnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Solomko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov4181111113S. Solomko36118891
WAug 31 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov47118611113S. Solomko4561111892
LAug 27 · 12:05V. Kolesnykov50711121192S. Solomko53118149113
LAug 24 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov184770S. Solomko331111113
WJul 23 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov341112113S. Solomko2781090
LJul 21 · 12:10V. Kolesnykov269980S. Solomko331111113
WJul 17 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov341112113S. Solomko1731040
LJul 14 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov2891270S. Solomko361114113
WJul 10 · 11:20V. Kolesnykov331111113S. Solomko219750
WJul 6 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov4181111113S. Solomko35117981
V. Kolesnykov10
WOct 5 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov1.368111011113O. Leonenko3.0011412992WOct 2 · 10:04V. Kolesnykov1.83111311143O. Karpenko1.8361113121WOct 2 · 08:00Y. Volkov1.91101150V. Kolesnykov1.801213113LOct 2 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov3.50114941A. Troyan1.2871111113LOct 2 · 06:00O. Karpenko1.83591111113V. Kolesnykov1.8311118692LOct 2 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.6391161182Y. Kovshun1.44116119113LSep 28 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov1.61881161I. Emets2.2011119113WSep 28 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov1.911111113Y. Volkov1.805460LSep 28 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov1.50811111392V. Bilobrov2.50119715113WSep 28 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov1.61121011113A. Martyniuk2.201012731
S. Solomko10
LOct 5 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.20511116153S. Solomko1.61116911132LOct 5 · 06:00O. Volynets2.101111113S. Solomko1.679930WOct 4 · 11:50E. Populovskyi4.333870S. Solomko1.201111113LOct 4 · 10:50S. Solomko1.801295101A. Kurtenko1.91101111123WOct 4 · 09:50S. Solomko1.5711111113O. Osadchyi2.25491131WOct 4 · 08:20S. Solomko2.00111167113A. Martyniuk1.7368111152WOct 4 · 06:20S. Solomko1.731111113A. Kovalenko2.005680LOct 3 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.2015511113S. Solomko1.611311681WOct 3 · 17:30E. Populovskyi4.007940S. Solomko1.221111103LOct 3 · 16:00A. Martyniuk2.001111113S. Solomko1.739410
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