TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Shypilov vs Yurii Shmyndra 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511711116119116
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 6–4 Yurii Shmyndra Yurii Shmyndra has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Shmyndra
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Shypilov
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1481 vs Shmyndra 1602
Shmyndra
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 40% vs Shmyndra 60%
Shmyndra
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 40% vs Shmyndra 60%
Shmyndra
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -2 · Shmyndra +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shypilov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 1.909 / Shmyndra 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shmyndra)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245051
Shypilov1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 164 of 369
Down 0–1, comes back29% 59 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 111
Shmyndra1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 29 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it60% 15 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov6wins
AwayShmyndra4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderShypilov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov71.4%5 of 7
AwayShmyndra66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov7Shmyndra3n = 10Shypilov took 7 of 10
S2Shypilov7Shmyndra3n = 10Shypilov took 7 of 10
S3Shypilov4Shmyndra6n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S4Shypilov2Shmyndra3n = 5Shmyndra took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovShmyndraShypilov − ShmyndraBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.134.1+1.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 861 vs 98 / 21345.4%46%391 / 861 vs 98 / 213Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraShypilov 1.91/Shmyndra 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 13:35A. Shypilov4111118562Y. Shmyndra49791111113
LAug 22 · 17:35A. Shypilov229670Y. Shmyndra331111113
WAug 22 · 03:00A. Shypilov4211119113Y. Shmyndra30941161
LAug 16 · 08:35A. Shypilov227690Y. Shmyndra331111113
WAug 15 · 17:35A. Shypilov51811136133Y. Shmyndra521181111112
WAug 9 · 10:35A. Shypilov331111113Y. Shmyndra166460
WAug 8 · 17:35A. Shypilov3811115113Y. Shmyndra36981181
LJul 12 · 05:05A. Shypilov34138671Y. Shmyndra44111111113
WJul 5 · 11:35A. Shypilov351111133Y. Shmyndra2247110
WJun 7 · 09:35A. Shypilov331111113Y. Shmyndra268990
A. Shypilov10
LOct 6 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.7531050R. Lazebnyi1.401112113LOct 6 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.001091181N. Kovalchuk1.7312115113LOct 6 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.91181112111O. Mitla1.8020514133LOct 6 · 02:00A. Shypilov2.101011111172M. Smyrnov1.67129135113WOct 6 · 00:30A. Shypilov1.91111015113V. Vlasenko1.808121371LOct 5 · 23:00A. Shypilov2.638740R. Lazebnyi1.441111113LOct 5 · 20:00A. Shypilov2.0041480O. Hura1.731116113LOct 2 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.8311119121V. Vlasenko1.8313711143WOct 2 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.2012111111113O. Hura1.6114913992LOct 1 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.20114891M. Smyrnov1.6181111113
Y. Shmyndra10
WOct 6 · 03:00R. Lazebnyi1.676780Y. Shmyndra2.101111113LOct 6 · 01:30Y. Shmyndra2.201831081O. Hura1.61161112113WOct 5 · 23:30V. Vlasenko2.00101090Y. Shmyndra1.731212113WOct 5 · 20:30M. Smyrnov1.917290Y. Shmyndra1.801111113LOct 4 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.9116911113Y. Shmyndra1.801411491WOct 4 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2511411832Y. Shmyndra1.57911711113WOct 4 · 08:35V. Plishylo1.91611171Y. Shmyndra1.8011411113LOct 4 · 06:35O. Hura1.831311113Y. Shmyndra1.8311790LOct 4 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.501111113Y. Shmyndra2.509670WOct 3 · 18:05O. Mitla2.3811815101Y. Shmyndra1.5361117123
Upcoming Matches
A. Shypilov
Oct 7 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.10V. Vlasenko1.67—Oct 7 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.00M. Smyrnov1.73—Oct 7 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.00N. Kovalchuk1.73—Oct 7 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.75R. Lazebnyi1.40—Oct 7 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.00O. Hura1.73—Oct 8 · 00:45A. Shypilov1.80O. Mitla1.91—Oct 8 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.00M. Smyrnov1.73—
Y. Shmyndra
Nothing scheduled
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