TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Shypilov vs Nazar Kovalchuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012911115811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 56.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 29–32 Nazar Kovalchuk Anton Shypilov has won 29 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:3556.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-32 in 61
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1480 vs Kovalchuk 1671
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov -2 · Kovalchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.00 / Kovalchuk 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250680
Shypilov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 164 of 370
Down 0–1, comes back29% 59 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 113
Kovalchuk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 167 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it73% 108 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov100%4 of 4
AwayKovalchuk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Shypilov0Kovalchuk10n = 10Kovalchuk took 10 of 10
S3Shypilov8Kovalchuk2n = 10Shypilov took 8 of 10
S4Shypilov4Kovalchuk3n = 7Shypilov took 4 of 7
S5Shypilov1Kovalchuk2n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovKovalchukS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.841.0−5.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 866 vs 413 / 79245.4%52.2%393 / 866 vs 413 / 792Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukShypilov 2.00/Kovalchuk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 30 · 20:15A. Shypilov2710890N. Kovalchuk341211113
WSep 29 · 21:45A. Shypilov48115129113N. Kovalchuk47611101192
LSep 26 · 15:05A. Shypilov47106111282N. Kovalchuk531211910113
LSep 23 · 23:15A. Shypilov354813101N. Kovalchuk45111111123
WSep 21 · 07:25A. Shypilov4011711113N. Kovalchuk31411881
LSep 20 · 07:35A. Shypilov23351141N. Kovalchuk4211119113
LSep 17 · 20:15A. Shypilov155550N. Kovalchuk331111113
LSep 16 · 21:45A. Shypilov49812111172N. Kovalchuk51111487113
WSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov3811511113N. Kovalchuk33611971
A. Shypilov10
LOct 6 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.91181112111O. Mitla1.8020514133LOct 6 · 02:00A. Shypilov2.101011111172M. Smyrnov1.67129135113WOct 6 · 00:30A. Shypilov1.91111015113V. Vlasenko1.808121371LOct 5 · 23:00A. Shypilov2.638740R. Lazebnyi1.441111113WOct 5 · 21:30A. Shypilov1.91571111113Y. Shmyndra1.8011116962LOct 5 · 20:00A. Shypilov2.0041480O. Hura1.731116113LOct 2 · 02:15A. Shypilov1.8311119121V. Vlasenko1.8313711143WOct 2 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.2012111111113O. Hura1.6114913992LOct 1 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.20114891M. Smyrnov1.6181111113WOct 1 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.7512811113R. Lazebnyi1.401011971
N. Kovalchuk10
WOct 6 · 20:45M. Smyrnov2.38581121N. Kovalchuk1.5311118113LOct 3 · 18:35V. Plishylo2.00117119113N. Kovalchuk1.7361191172WOct 3 · 17:35O. Hura2.25115951N. Kovalchuk1.5791111113WOct 3 · 16:05Y. Shmyndra2.20121188122N. Kovalchuk1.611081111143LOct 3 · 14:05M. Smyrnov2.3811411113N. Kovalchuk1.53711581WOct 3 · 12:05O. Mitla2.7521111262N. Kovalchuk1.40118511113WOct 2 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4411117682N. Kovalchuk2.63511111113LOct 2 · 01:30D. Zeniuk1.301311113N. Kovalchuk3.4011590LOct 2 · 00:00I. Kozachuk1.831111113N. Kovalchuk1.838990WOct 1 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.731211871N. Kovalchuk2.0014811113
Upcoming Matches
A. Shypilov
Oct 6 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.75R. Lazebnyi1.40—Oct 7 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.10V. Vlasenko1.67—Oct 7 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.00M. Smyrnov1.73—Oct 7 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.00N. Kovalchuk1.73—Oct 7 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.75R. Lazebnyi1.40—Oct 7 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.00O. Hura1.73—Oct 8 · 00:45A. Shypilov1.80O. Mitla1.91—Oct 8 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.00M. Smyrnov1.73—
N. Kovalchuk
Oct 6 · 23:45N. Kovalchuk1.57V. Vlasenko2.25—Oct 7 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.40O. Mitla2.75—Oct 7 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.61R. Lazebnyi2.20—Oct 7 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk1.73A. Shypilov2.00—Oct 7 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.57O. Hura2.25—Oct 8 · 00:15N. Kovalchuk1.57M. Smyrnov2.25—Oct 8 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.61R. Lazebnyi2.20—Oct 8 · 02:45N. Kovalchuk1.40O. Mitla2.75—
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