TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Lazebnyi vs Yurii Shmyndra 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:54 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Yurii Shmyndra below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 55.8%
54 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5455.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1602 vs Shmyndra 1588
Lazebnyi
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 20% vs Shmyndra 40%
Shmyndra
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 50% vs Shmyndra 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi -1 · Shmyndra -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Lazebnyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 1.666 / Shmyndra 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Lazebnyi)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13244497
Lazebnyi1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 53 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it72% 38 of 53
Shmyndra2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiShmyndraBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 176 vs 99 / 21649.4%45.8%87 / 176 vs 99 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiLazebnyi 1.67/Shmyndra 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Shmyndra won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
R. Lazebnyi10
LOct 6 · 01:00M. Smyrnov2.38111174113R. Lazebnyi1.5387111172WOct 5 · 23:00A. Shypilov2.638740R. Lazebnyi1.441111113LOct 5 · 22:00R. Lazebnyi1.83101111882O. Hura1.83126311113LOct 5 · 21:00V. Vlasenko2.63131013113R. Lazebnyi1.4411121151LOct 2 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.501113913113R. Lazebnyi1.50611111592WOct 2 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.367121211113O. Mitla3.00111014572WOct 1 · 23:45O. Hura1.8311811111R. Lazebnyi1.8391113133LOct 1 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.7512811113R. Lazebnyi1.401011971WOct 1 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.6311711732R. Lazebnyi1.44611811113WSep 29 · 11:35R. Lazebnyi2.251111133D. Neborak1.5777110
Y. Shmyndra10
LOct 6 · 01:30Y. Shmyndra2.201831081O. Hura1.61161112113WOct 5 · 23:30V. Vlasenko2.00101090Y. Shmyndra1.731212113LOct 5 · 21:30A. Shypilov1.91571111113Y. Shmyndra1.8011116962WOct 5 · 20:30M. Smyrnov1.917290Y. Shmyndra1.801111113LOct 4 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.9116911113Y. Shmyndra1.801411491WOct 4 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2511411832Y. Shmyndra1.57911711113WOct 4 · 08:35V. Plishylo1.91611171Y. Shmyndra1.8011411113LOct 4 · 06:35O. Hura1.831311113Y. Shmyndra1.8311790LOct 4 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.501111113Y. Shmyndra2.509670WOct 3 · 18:05O. Mitla2.3811815101Y. Shmyndra1.5361117123
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