TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Zagajewski vs Piotr Staniszewski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117911112611112
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
117911112611112
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 8–6 Piotr Staniszewski Piotr Staniszewski has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zagajewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Zagajewski
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1305 vs Staniszewski 1338
Staniszewski
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 20% vs Staniszewski 40%
Staniszewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 20% vs Staniszewski 50%
Staniszewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski -3 · Staniszewski +1
Zagajewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zagajewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniszewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 1.80 / Staniszewski 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zagajewski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242623
Zagajewski1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 34 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Staniszewski1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 48 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZagajewski5wins
AwayStaniszewski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZagajewski100%5 of 5
AwayStaniszewski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zagajewski5Staniszewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Zagajewski6Staniszewski4n = 10Zagajewski took 6 of 10
S3Zagajewski3Staniszewski7n = 10Staniszewski took 7 of 10
S4Zagajewski4Staniszewski5n = 9Staniszewski took 5 of 9
S5Zagajewski2Staniszewski1n = 3Zagajewski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZagajewskiStaniszewskiZ − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.538.7−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiStaniszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 713 vs 393 / 83548.5%47.1%346 / 713 vs 393 / 835Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZagajewskiZagajewski 1.80/Staniszewski 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zagajewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 09:00M. Zagajewski48119116113P. Staniszewski3371121122
LOct 4 · 03:40M. Zagajewski2511590P. Staniszewski351311113
WSep 20 · 03:20M. Zagajewski461111310113P. Staniszewski3973111262
LSep 6 · 09:45M. Zagajewski356117111P. Staniszewski4311811133
LSep 6 · 03:20M. Zagajewski44611411122P. Staniszewski54119119143
WAug 30 · 10:05M. Zagajewski3911116113P. Staniszewski28761141
WAug 30 · 06:00M. Zagajewski4111811113P. Staniszewski34911951
WAug 2 · 11:45M. Zagajewski3711114113P. Staniszewski32661191
LMar 27 · 20:05M. Zagajewski411312791P. Staniszewski47151011113
LJan 23 · 06:50M. Zagajewski29961131P. Staniszewski4211119113
M. Zagajewski10
LOct 4 · 10:05M. Zagajewski2.946950M. Marchlewski1.351111113LOct 4 · 07:40T. Piotrowski1.931112113M. Zagajewski1.7981070LOct 4 · 06:50M. Marchlewski1.3012811113M. Zagajewski3.101011881LOct 4 · 06:00M. Zagajewski2.209640P. Maruszak1.601111113WOct 4 · 04:25M. Zagajewski1.581111113K. Makowski2.209870LOct 4 · 03:40P. Staniszewski2.001311113M. Zagajewski1.7011590LSep 25 · 14:40M. Zagajewski2.78116461T. Filbrandt1.3971111113LSep 25 · 13:05M. Zagajewski3.4578140J. Zochniak1.251111163WSep 25 · 11:50M. Zagajewski1.6711711113B. Sulkowski2.10811681LSep 25 · 10:10M. Zagajewski2.3771141162M. Minda1.52118119113
P. Staniszewski10
WOct 4 · 08:05P. Staniszewski1.801211711113K. Makowski1.8514911762LOct 4 · 06:25T. Piotrowski1.601111113P. Staniszewski2.207690LOct 4 · 05:35M. Marchlewski1.60111164113P. Staniszewski2.1576111182LOct 4 · 04:50P. Staniszewski2.10128991P. Maruszak1.65101111113WOct 4 · 03:40P. Staniszewski2.001311113M. Zagajewski1.7011590WSep 20 · 07:40P. Staniszewski2.00111179113I. Dabrowski1.7076111182WSep 20 · 06:25P. Staniszewski2.1011811113M. Misiak1.60411881LSep 20 · 05:15P. Staniszewski1.857711111M. Lukaszewski1.8011119133WSep 20 · 04:00K. Kufel1.617540P. Staniszewski2.201111113LSep 20 · 03:20P. Staniszewski2.2573111262M. Zagajewski1.541111310113
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