TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Zagajewski vs Marcin Marchlewski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched: 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
611911511––––
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 0–1 Marcin Marchlewski Mateusz Zagajewski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Marchlewski beat Zagajewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0457.8%Our read74.1%to break even at 1.35
short by 16.3pp74.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.35 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (69%)
Marchlewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1305 vs Marchlewski 1527
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 222 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 40% vs Marchlewski 60%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 30% vs Marchlewski 60%
Marchlewski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski +1 · Marchlewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Marchlewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 2.94 / Marchlewski 1.35
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Marchlewski)-16.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242960
Zagajewski2.94
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 34 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Marchlewski1.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite64% won 92 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZagajewski0wins
AwayMarchlewski1wins
Marchlewski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricZagajewskiMarchlewskiZ − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match37.042.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 713 vs 452 / 93348.5%48.5%346 / 713 vs 452 / 933Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiZagajewski 2.94/Marchlewski 1.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 4 · 06:50M. Zagajewski371011881M. Marchlewski4212811113
M. Zagajewski10
WOct 4 · 09:00M. Zagajewski1.80119116113P. Staniszewski1.9171121122LOct 4 · 07:40T. Piotrowski1.931112113M. Zagajewski1.7981070LOct 4 · 06:50M. Marchlewski1.3012811113M. Zagajewski3.101011881LOct 4 · 06:00M. Zagajewski2.209640P. Maruszak1.601111113WOct 4 · 04:25M. Zagajewski1.581111113K. Makowski2.209870LOct 4 · 03:40P. Staniszewski2.001311113M. Zagajewski1.7011590LSep 25 · 14:40M. Zagajewski2.78116461T. Filbrandt1.3971111113LSep 25 · 13:05M. Zagajewski3.4578140J. Zochniak1.251111163WSep 25 · 11:50M. Zagajewski1.6711711113B. Sulkowski2.10811681LSep 25 · 10:10M. Zagajewski2.3771141162M. Minda1.52118119113
M. Marchlewski10
LOct 4 · 09:20M. Marchlewski1.85111181342K. Szurlej1.859131111113LOct 4 · 08:30M. Marchlewski1.55107111152P. Maruszak2.25121177113WOct 4 · 06:50M. Marchlewski1.3012811113M. Zagajewski3.101011881WOct 4 · 05:35M. Marchlewski1.60111164113P. Staniszewski2.1576111182WOct 4 · 04:00M. Marchlewski1.421111113T. Piotrowski2.656790WOct 4 · 03:00M. Marchlewski1.4911911113K. Makowski2.46711991LOct 3 · 14:35M. Marchlewski1.579620M. Misiak2.251111113LOct 3 · 12:55M. Marchlewski1.67891161B. Mleczko2.1011117113WOct 3 · 11:40M. Marchlewski1.281111113A. Myszewski3.509550WOct 3 · 10:00M. Marchlewski1.25812611113I. Dabrowski3.75111011672
Upcoming Matches
M. Zagajewski
M. Marchlewski
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.