TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Zagajewski vs Bartosz Sulkowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711116118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeBartosz Sulkowski to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
118711116118––
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 2–6 Bartosz Sulkowski Mateusz Zagajewski has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:34What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zagajewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Sulkowski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1311 vs Sulkowski 1557
Sulkowski
Wrong
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 0% vs Sulkowski 60%
Sulkowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 30% vs Sulkowski 60%
Sulkowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski -6 · Sulkowski -2
Zagajewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zagajewski) · live re-read · sealed at 33% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 1.67 / Sulkowski 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zagajewski)-1.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13189833
Zagajewski1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 32 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Sulkowski2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 163 of 484
Down 0–1, comes back18% 51 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZagajewski2wins
AwaySulkowski6wins
3 of 8 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZagajewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySulkowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zagajewski2Sulkowski6n = 8Sulkowski took 6 of 8
S2Zagajewski3Sulkowski5n = 8Sulkowski took 5 of 8
S3Zagajewski3Sulkowski5n = 8Sulkowski took 5 of 8
S4Zagajewski3Sulkowski3n = 6split evenly
S5Zagajewski1Sulkowski2n = 3Sulkowski took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricZagajewskiSulkowskiZ − SBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match36.840.1−3.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 735 vs 591 / 131748.8%44.9%359 / 735 vs 591 / 1317Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZagajewskiZagajewski 1.67/Sulkowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zagajewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 11 · 14:40M. Zagajewski32681171B. Sulkowski3711114113
LJun 12 · 09:00M. Zagajewski53811116172B. Sulkowski49114411193
WMay 29 · 08:10M. Zagajewski48811711113B. Sulkowski4311711682
LMay 8 · 11:50M. Zagajewski4611891172B. Sulkowski51911119113
WMar 13 · 14:30M. Zagajewski4011117113B. Sulkowski29381171
LMar 12 · 10:00M. Zagajewski2312650B. Sulkowski361411113
LFeb 18 · 15:40M. Zagajewski32671181B. Sulkowski4211119113
LFeb 18 · 04:50M. Zagajewski2010370B. Sulkowski341211113
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 25 · 10:10M. Zagajewski2.3771141162M. Minda1.52118119113LSep 25 · 09:00M. Zagajewski3.7088100K. Wisniewski1.221111123LSep 25 · 07:40B. Czerwinski1.4261414113M. Zagajewski2.6011121241LSep 25 · 06:55R. Stapor1.511111113M. Zagajewski2.405850LSep 25 · 06:05M. Zagajewski1.90712181D. Wrobel1.80111011113LSep 25 · 04:30M. Zagajewski1.55691181B. Wisniewski2.2511115113WSep 25 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski2.4656100M. Zagajewski1.421111123WSep 20 · 13:50P. Maruszak1.959630M. Zagajewski1.741111113LSep 20 · 13:00I. Dabrowski1.78711911113M. Zagajewski1.9111611472WSep 20 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.9011511113M. Misiak1.80511681
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 25 · 12:40M. Minda2.2011611153B. Sulkowski1.579118131LSep 25 · 11:00B. Sulkowski2.3096111152T. Filbrandt1.52111184113LSep 25 · 09:50B. Sulkowski2.15881131J. Zochniak1.6111116113WSep 25 · 00:10B. Sulkowski1.441312113K. Klocek2.63111090WSep 24 · 23:20B. Sulkowski1.6111117113K. Rudomina2.20691171WSep 24 · 21:50B. Sulkowski3.4011411113K. Staszczyk1.30611691WSep 24 · 21:25B. Sulkowski2.2511119113D. Solilo1.57451121LSep 24 · 20:30K. Rudomina1.801111113B. Sulkowski1.918790WSep 24 · 19:15B. Sulkowski1.7311611113M. Minda2.00411461LSep 24 · 18:05J. Zochniak1.73911116113B. Sulkowski2.0011951182
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