TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Simecek Jnr vs Tomas Kanka 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118411118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Tomas Kanka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 59.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 13–11 Tomas Kanka Tomas Kanka has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5359.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Jnr
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1629 vs Kanka 1526
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 20% vs Kanka 80%
Kanka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 30% vs Kanka 60%
Kanka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -1 · Kanka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Jnr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.571 / Kanka 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Jnr)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13242170
Jnr1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 57 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 43 of 55
Kanka2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 37 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr7wins
AwayKanka3wins
Jnr leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr87.5%7 of 8
AwayKankan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr8Kanka2n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S2Jnr7Kanka3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S3Jnr2Kanka8n = 10Kanka took 8 of 10
S4Jnr5Kanka1n = 6Jnr took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrKankaJ − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.930.9+4.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrKankaBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 420 vs 186 / 39152.6%47.6%221 / 420 vs 186 / 391Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.57/Kanka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr3711114113T. Kanka36981181
WAug 15 · 07:30J. Jnr351111133T. Kanka1733110
WJun 27 · 05:15J. Jnr46131111113T. Kanka331141351
WMay 16 · 05:45J. Jnr4211119113T. Kanka25551141
LMar 1 · 09:00J. Jnr2710980T. Kanka341211113
WFeb 21 · 06:45J. Jnr331111113T. Kanka185580
LJan 11 · 08:15J. Jnr35155691T. Kanka46131111113
WDec 21 · 09:37J. Jnr3811115113T. Kanka32841191
LDec 21 · 07:00J. Jnr205870T. Kanka331111113
WDec 14 · 06:15J. Jnr3611113113T. Kanka35791181
J. Jnr10
WOct 4 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.91812128102J. Jnr1.8011101011123WOct 4 · 07:00J. Jnr2.1011118113D. Brichacek1.67661181LOct 1 · 20:43J. Jnr1.8311611472M. Hajek1.83611611113WOct 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.5010690J. Jnr2.501211113LOct 1 · 18:45A. Pavlik2.0011511113J. Jnr1.73611751LOct 1 · 17:15L. Stoces1.6711118113J. Jnr2.10891191LSep 23 · 20:33J. Jnr1.739111111102P. Orlowski2.00119139123LSep 23 · 19:15P. Orlowski1.8011118113J. Jnr1.91971141WSep 23 · 18:45J. Jnr1.531111113P. Hala2.386950WSep 23 · 17:45J. Jnr2.00111197123D. Brichacek1.73861111102
T. Kanka10
LOct 4 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.331113113T. Kanka3.2591160LOct 3 · 09:08Z. Kuksa1.831111811113T. Kanka1.8361311462WOct 3 · 07:30M. Taranko2.63110100T. Kanka1.441112123WOct 3 · 07:00T. Kanka1.671111113J. Botka2.103350WOct 3 · 06:00T. Kanka2.381211113Z. Kuksa1.5310460WSep 28 · 08:48R. Merkl1.91861121T. Kanka1.8011114113LSep 28 · 07:45T. Kanka1.83411281R. Merkl1.83111110113LSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski1.441111113T. Kanka2.635790LSep 28 · 05:45Z. Kuksa1.6111811113T. Kanka2.20611761WSep 26 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.50611111152T. Kanka2.50115135113
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