TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Zagajewski vs Kacper Makowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Kacper Makowski
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:24 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
119118117––––
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 1–2 Kacper Makowski Mateusz Zagajewski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2458.9%Our read63.3%to break even at 1.58
short by 4.4pp63.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.58 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Zagajewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1307 vs Makowski 1291
Zagajewski
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 20% vs Makowski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 10% vs Makowski 50%
Makowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski -3 · Makowski -2
Zagajewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Zagajewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 1.58 / Makowski 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Zagajewski)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242150
Zagajewski1.58
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 34 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Makowski2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 31 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZagajewski1wins
AwayMakowski2wins
Makowski leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zagajewski1Makowski2n = 3Makowski took 2 of 3
S2Zagajewski2Makowski1n = 3Zagajewski took 2 of 3
S3Zagajewski0Makowski3n = 3Makowski took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricZagajewskiMakowskiZ − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.736.3−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiMakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 708 vs 141 / 34348.6%41.1%344 / 708 vs 141 / 343Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZagajewskiZagajewski 1.58/Makowski 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Zagajewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LApr 10 · 19:20M. Zagajewski33811591K. Makowski3611311113
WMar 27 · 21:15M. Zagajewski45121111113K. Makowski391071391
LMar 27 · 13:15M. Zagajewski2367100K. Makowski341111123
M. Zagajewski10
LOct 4 · 03:40P. Staniszewski2.001311113M. Zagajewski1.7011590LSep 25 · 14:40M. Zagajewski2.78116461T. Filbrandt1.3971111113LSep 25 · 13:05M. Zagajewski3.4578140J. Zochniak1.251111163WSep 25 · 11:50M. Zagajewski1.6711711113B. Sulkowski2.10811681LSep 25 · 10:10M. Zagajewski2.3771141162M. Minda1.52118119113LSep 25 · 09:00M. Zagajewski3.7088100K. Wisniewski1.221111123LSep 25 · 07:40B. Czerwinski1.4261414113M. Zagajewski2.6011121241LSep 25 · 06:55R. Stapor1.511111113M. Zagajewski2.405850LSep 25 · 06:05M. Zagajewski1.90712181D. Wrobel1.80111011113LSep 25 · 04:30M. Zagajewski1.55691181B. Wisniewski2.2511115113
K. Makowski10
LOct 4 · 03:00M. Marchlewski1.4911911113K. Makowski2.46711991LOct 3 · 14:35K. Makowski3.00751191P. Maruszak1.3211117113WOct 3 · 13:00K. Makowski2.1511811153M. Sinicki1.637116131LOct 3 · 11:45K. Makowski1.7510960M. Lukaszewski1.901211113LOct 3 · 10:05K. Makowski2.554660T. Piotrowski1.461111113WOct 3 · 09:00K. Makowski1.9591111113M. Skorski1.70119971WOct 3 · 08:05K. Makowski2.307111610113A. Myszewski1.55118141282WOct 3 · 06:25D. Wrobel1.801091161K. Makowski1.8512116113LOct 3 · 05:35T. Piotrowski1.551111113K. Makowski2.256840WOct 3 · 04:50K. Makowski2.101111123M. Sinicki1.6569100
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