TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Tadeusz Piotrowski vs Kacper Makowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111614115115––
Kacper Makowski
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:07 and never touched: 67.0% is still 67.0%
Graded at full timeTadeusz Piotrowski to win
67.0%
67.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
5111614115115––
H2H Tadeusz Piotrowski 14–1 Kacper Makowski Kacper Makowski has won 1 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 19h before this match
Piotrowski beat Makowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:0767.0%Our read69.0%to break even at 1.45
short by 2.0pp69.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.45 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Piotrowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-1 in 15
Piotrowski
Correct
gap of 13 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Piotrowski 1388 vs Makowski 1278
Piotrowski
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Piotrowski 80% vs Makowski 20%
Piotrowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Piotrowski 80% vs Makowski 40%
Piotrowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Piotrowski -1 · Makowski -3
Makowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Piotrowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPiotrowski 1.45 / Makowski 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Piotrowski)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242208
Piotrowski1.45
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 164 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it95% 86 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it81% 124 of 153
Makowski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 31 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePiotrowski9wins
AwayMakowski1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPiotrowski leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePiotrowski100%8 of 8
AwayMakowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Piotrowski8Makowski2n = 10Piotrowski took 8 of 10
S2Piotrowski7Makowski3n = 10Piotrowski took 7 of 10
S3Piotrowski9Makowski1n = 10Piotrowski took 9 of 10
S4Piotrowski2Makowski2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPiotrowskiMakowskiP − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.828.8+10.0per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPiotrowskiMakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime558 / 887 vs 141 / 34462.9%41%558 / 887 vs 141 / 344Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PiotrowskiPiotrowski 1.45/Makowski 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67%
Piotrowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Piotrowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 10:05T. Piotrowski331111113K. Makowski164660
WOct 3 · 05:35T. Piotrowski331111113K. Makowski186840
WMay 30 · 13:05T. Piotrowski341112113K. Makowski1951040
WMay 24 · 08:45T. Piotrowski541051311153K. Makowski551211118132
WMay 23 · 08:10T. Piotrowski54118119153K. Makowski45311711132
WApr 12 · 06:55T. Piotrowski341111123K. Makowski1761100
LMar 14 · 07:30T. Piotrowski31711941K. Makowski4111811113
WMar 8 · 10:25T. Piotrowski331111113K. Makowski165560
WMar 8 · 06:40T. Piotrowski331111113K. Makowski162770
WFeb 22 · 09:35T. Piotrowski4915911143K. Makowski4513119121
T. Piotrowski10
LOct 4 · 04:00M. Marchlewski1.421111113T. Piotrowski2.656790WOct 4 · 03:20T. Piotrowski1.85911611133P. Maruszak1.85113117112WOct 3 · 13:50T. Piotrowski1.291111113M. Sinicki3.309990WOct 3 · 12:35T. Piotrowski1.621111113M. Lukaszewski2.189710WOct 3 · 11:20T. Piotrowski1.621111123M. Skorski2.1541100WOct 3 · 10:05K. Makowski2.554660T. Piotrowski1.461111113LOct 3 · 09:20T. Piotrowski1.731191111102P. Maruszak2.00911813123WOct 3 · 08:30T. Piotrowski1.3711118113M. Sinicki2.75691171WOct 3 · 06:50T. Piotrowski2.0561111113P. Maruszak1.68119581WOct 3 · 05:35T. Piotrowski1.551111113K. Makowski2.256840
K. Makowski10
LOct 4 · 04:25M. Zagajewski1.581111113K. Makowski2.209870LOct 4 · 03:00M. Marchlewski1.4911911113K. Makowski2.46711991LOct 3 · 14:35K. Makowski3.00751191P. Maruszak1.3211117113WOct 3 · 13:00K. Makowski2.1511811153M. Sinicki1.637116131LOct 3 · 11:45K. Makowski1.7510960M. Lukaszewski1.901211113LOct 3 · 10:05K. Makowski2.554660T. Piotrowski1.461111113WOct 3 · 09:00K. Makowski1.9591111113M. Skorski1.70119971WOct 3 · 08:05K. Makowski2.307111610113A. Myszewski1.55118141282WOct 3 · 06:25D. Wrobel1.801091161K. Makowski1.8512116113LOct 3 · 05:35T. Piotrowski1.551111113K. Makowski2.256840
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