TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Mastera vs Oldrich Stehlik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8115111191012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOldrich Stehlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Mastera above · Oldrich Stehlik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Oldrich Stehlik at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Martin Mastera 11–19 Oldrich Stehlik Martin Mastera has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stehlik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-19 in 30
Stehlik
Correct
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mastera 1753 vs Stehlik 1728
Mastera
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mastera 100% vs Stehlik 40%
Mastera
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mastera 90% vs Stehlik 60%
Mastera
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mastera +8 · Stehlik +1
Mastera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stehlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stehlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMastera 2.00 / Stehlik 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stehlik)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13241713
Mastera2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 57 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back30% 23 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Stehlik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 44 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMastera4wins
AwayStehlik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStehlik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMastera100%3 of 3
AwayStehlik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mastera3Stehlik7n = 10Stehlik took 7 of 10
S2Mastera5Stehlik5n = 10split evenly
S3Mastera4Stehlik6n = 10Stehlik took 6 of 10
S4Mastera4Stehlik3n = 7Mastera took 4 of 7
S5Mastera2Stehlik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMasteraStehlikM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.3−1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasteraStehlikBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 355 vs 145 / 26650.4%54.5%179 / 355 vs 145 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StehlikMastera 2.00/Stehlik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stehlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stehlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 12:05M. Mastera348511101O. Stehlik4311119123
LSep 19 · 17:15M. Mastera217770O. Stehlik331111113
WSep 19 · 16:05M. Mastera331111113O. Stehlik229850
WAug 5 · 17:21M. Mastera47511119113O. Stehlik4511691182
LAug 5 · 14:05M. Mastera471011511102O. Stehlik51129117123
WAug 2 · 18:05M. Mastera491110611113O. Stehlik3811211682
LJul 16 · 15:35M. Mastera47911101162O. Stehlik49119126113
WJul 15 · 14:35M. Mastera3911116113O. Stehlik28551171
LJul 9 · 14:35M. Mastera371361171O. Stehlik4415117113
LJul 4 · 07:35M. Mastera2857160O. Stehlik401111183
M. Mastera10
WOct 4 · 11:05M. Mastera1.44159119113T. Trnka2.63131171192WOct 4 · 10:05M. Mastera1.531111113M. Holub2.385580WSep 30 · 17:45M. Mastera1.8311126113T. Beran1.838101171WSep 30 · 16:35M. Mastera1.9171111113T. Beran1.80114671WSep 30 · 15:05F. Karel1.80712391M. Mastera1.91111011113WSep 30 · 14:35T. Bartik1.67119781M. Mastera2.1071111113WSep 28 · 09:50J. Hitzger1.506119101M. Mastera2.5011411123WSep 28 · 08:35M. Mastera1.91511411113J. Ruzicka1.8011911232LSep 28 · 07:05J. Hitzger1.7381111113M. Mastera2.00115891WSep 28 · 06:35O. Polak1.50109111172M. Mastera2.50121145113
O. Stehlik10
WOct 4 · 11:35M. Holub2.38711691O. Stehlik1.5311611113LOct 4 · 10:35O. Stehlik1.44111189102T. Trnka2.63931111123LOct 2 · 17:45J. Hitzger1.61111011113O. Stehlik2.20812851LOct 2 · 16:05O. Stehlik2.0011611482J. Hitzger1.73511611113WOct 2 · 15:05O. Stehlik1.67114711123J. Ruzicka2.10711119102WOct 2 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80121175113J. Muska1.91105111142WSep 26 · 13:55J. Hitzger1.9111991192O. Stehlik1.80811115113WSep 26 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.73112971O. Stehlik2.0021111113WSep 26 · 11:35M. Holub2.10115671O. Stehlik1.6761111113LSep 26 · 10:35O. Stehlik2.2011711712O. Polak1.61811911113
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