TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Mastera vs Tomas Beran 2000 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181210611117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Mastera to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Mastera above · Tomas Beran 2000 below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Martin Mastera at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Mastera 4–12 Tomas Beran 2000 Martin Mastera has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Mastera beat Beran 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Beran
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Beran
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mastera 1743 vs Beran 1655
Mastera
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mastera 100% vs Beran 60%
Mastera
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mastera 70% vs Beran 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mastera +5 · Beran -1
Mastera
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mastera) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mastera form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMastera 1.833 / Beran 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Beran)-8.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13223521
Mastera1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Beran1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMastera3wins
AwayBeran7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBeran leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMasteran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBeran87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mastera2Beran8n = 10Beran took 8 of 10
S2Mastera4Beran6n = 10Beran took 6 of 10
S3Mastera7Beran3n = 10Mastera took 7 of 10
S4Mastera6Beran2n = 8Mastera took 6 of 8
S5Mastera0Beran5n = 5Beran took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMasteraBeranM − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.8−1.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasteraBeranBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 351 vs 77 / 14650.1%52.7%176 / 351 vs 77 / 146Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MasteraMastera 1.83/Beran 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mastera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 16:35M. Mastera4071111113T. Beran28114671
LAug 21 · 15:05M. Mastera173680T. Beran331111113
LJul 29 · 16:35M. Mastera2991460T. Beran381116113
WJul 23 · 16:35M. Mastera4111415113T. Beran357111341
LJul 1 · 14:05M. Mastera529111111102T. Beran50116813123
LJun 24 · 14:35M. Mastera4291181132T. Beran47116118113
LJun 3 · 17:20M. Mastera4285111172T. Beran45111157113
LJun 3 · 16:35M. Mastera50713117122T. Beran511111411143
LApr 22 · 14:05M. Mastera3415111162T. Beran46111158113
WApr 1 · 15:35M. Mastera46111113113T. Beran358131131
M. Mastera10
WSep 30 · 16:35M. Mastera1.9171111113T. Beran1.80114671WSep 30 · 15:05F. Karel1.80712391M. Mastera1.91111011113WSep 30 · 14:35T. Bartik1.67119781M. Mastera2.1071111113WSep 28 · 09:50J. Hitzger1.506119101M. Mastera2.5011411123WSep 28 · 08:35M. Mastera1.91511411113J. Ruzicka1.8011911232LSep 28 · 07:05J. Hitzger1.7381111113M. Mastera2.00115891WSep 28 · 06:35O. Polak1.50109111172M. Mastera2.50121145113LSep 19 · 17:15M. Mastera2.007770O. Stehlik1.731111113WSep 19 · 16:05O. Stehlik1.739850M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960
T. Beran10
LSep 30 · 16:35M. Mastera1.9171111113T. Beran1.80114671WSep 30 · 15:35T. Beran2.501181111113T. Bartik1.5081113862WSep 30 · 14:05F. Karel1.50116791T. Beran2.5071111113WSep 29 · 17:05T. Beran1.531211511113S. Kafka2.3814411832LSep 29 · 16:05T. Beran2.10142641T. Trnka1.67121111113LSep 29 · 15:05T. Beran1.734690J. Ruzicka2.001111113WSep 29 · 14:05T. Beran1.671113113S. Kafka2.1041160WSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172WSep 14 · 16:35T. Beran2.6311711123T. Trnka1.447118101LSep 14 · 15:05T. Bartik1.501112113T. Beran2.5071030
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.