TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Karpisek vs Filip Kubos 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012118211118911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeFilip Kubos to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Karpisek above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Filip Kubos at 60.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Karpisek 2–6 Filip Kubos Ondrej Karpisek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1060.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kubos
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Kubos
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpisek 1410 vs Kubos 1499
Kubos
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpisek 20% vs Kubos 60%
Kubos
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpisek 40% vs Kubos 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpisek -3 · Kubos +2
Karpisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Kubos) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpisek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpisek 2.25 / Kubos 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kubos)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239964
Karpisek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 23 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Kubos1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 51 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it63% 38 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKarpisek2wins
AwayKubos6wins
3 of 8 to a deciderKubos leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpisek33.3%1 of 3
AwayKubos80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpisek3Kubos5n = 8Kubos took 5 of 8
S2Karpisek2Kubos6n = 8Kubos took 6 of 8
S3Karpisek5Kubos3n = 8Karpisek took 5 of 8
S4Karpisek4Kubos3n = 7Karpisek took 4 of 7
S5Karpisek0Kubos3n = 3Kubos took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKarpisekKubosKarpisek − KubosBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.641.8−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpisekKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 453 vs 354 / 71146.8%49.8%212 / 453 vs 354 / 711Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KubosKarpisek 2.25/Kubos 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kubos · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kubos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 12 · 16:59O. Karpisek368711101F. Kubos4111117123
WSep 12 · 15:00O. Karpisek4111118113F. Kubos32491181
LAug 8 · 13:05O. Karpisek48117111182F. Kubos52811913113
WAug 8 · 12:00O. Karpisek4161111133F. Kubos361195111
LMay 10 · 13:30O. Karpisek35881271F. Kubos43111110113
LApr 13 · 20:17O. Karpisek50119911102F. Kubos47611117123
LApr 13 · 17:45O. Karpisek3736111162F. Kubos50111189113
LApr 5 · 19:15O. Karpisek218850F. Kubos331111113
O. Karpisek10
WOct 4 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.8311711113J. Snr1.83711681LOct 4 · 18:30O. Karpisek1.6711411932K. Jirousek2.10611911113LOct 1 · 20:29O. Karpisek2.50715461S. Kalensky1.50111311113LOct 1 · 20:00T. Bertho1.8311117113O. Karpisek1.83721181LOct 1 · 19:00S. Kalensky1.5771113123O. Karpisek2.2511911101WOct 1 · 17:30V. Toman2.751111111262O. Karpisek1.40913714113LSep 30 · 20:58M. Vana1.7381113113O. Karpisek2.001191181WSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.201111126113M. Vana1.6179141182LSep 30 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.449880M. Drabek2.631111113
F. Kubos10
WOct 4 · 20:00K. Jirousek2.501171051F. Kubos1.5041112113WOct 4 · 19:00J. Snr1.8311681152F. Kubos1.83511117113WOct 2 · 20:58F. Kubos2.501111113M. Cizek1.509660WOct 2 · 20:00L. Hendrych1.8012990F. Kubos1.911411113LOct 2 · 19:00M. Cizek1.5711116113F. Kubos2.25851151WOct 2 · 17:30Z. Kuksa1.575980F. Kubos2.251111113LOct 1 · 16:29Z. Kuksa1.574111211113F. Kubos2.2511914642LOct 1 · 15:30F. Kubos2.008911111O. Horak1.7311117133LOct 1 · 14:30F. Kubos2.25116261V. Herrmann1.5781111113LOct 1 · 13:30F. Kubos2.3811116782Z. Kuksa1.53961111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Karpisek
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F. Kubos
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