TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Dalimil Machander vs Jakub Levicky 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171012811114511
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:29 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Levicky to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Jakub Levicky below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Jakub Levicky at 58.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 1–3 Jakub Levicky Dalimil Machander has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2958.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Levicky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Levicky
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1503 vs Levicky 1585
Levicky
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 40% vs Levicky 80%
Levicky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 40% vs Levicky 60%
Levicky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander -2 · Levicky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Levicky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Levicky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 2.20 / Levicky 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Levicky)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238574
Machander2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 59 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back17% 9 of 53
Levicky1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 89 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it88% 67 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMachander1wins
AwayLevicky3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevicky leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander2Levicky2n = 4split evenly
S2Machander1Levicky3n = 4Levicky took 3 of 4
S3Machander2Levicky2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMachanderLevickyM − LBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.236.5−3.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderLevickyBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 400 vs 452 / 89245.5%50.7%182 / 400 vs 452 / 892Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LevickyMachander 2.20/Levicky 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Levicky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Levicky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 4 · 07:30D. Machander45111081152J. Levicky45712114113
LSep 18 · 20:59D. Machander199640J. Levicky331111113
LSep 18 · 20:00D. Machander36791281J. Levicky43111110113
WApr 5 · 06:30D. Machander331111113J. Levicky259790
D. Machander10
LOct 4 · 06:30S. Byrtus1.7311119113D. Machander2.00561161LOct 1 · 09:30P. Osvald1.731111113D. Machander2.005780WOct 1 · 08:00D. Machander1.5781111113P. Chovanec2.25118631WOct 1 · 07:30P. Smetka2.6311118682D. Machander1.44841111113LOct 1 · 06:00D. Machander1.8361171162P. Osvald1.83119119113LSep 29 · 09:28D. Machander1.67811581M. Volny2.1011811113WSep 29 · 08:00D. Machander1.7311119113M. Volny2.00461131LSep 29 · 07:30M. Blejchar2.63511711113D. Machander1.4411811982WSep 29 · 06:00D. Machander1.7311119113M. Koral2.00971141LSep 26 · 20:59D. Machander2.10471181R. Vavrecka1.6711118113
J. Levicky10
LOct 4 · 08:00J. Levicky1.919111171S. Byrtus1.8011137113LOct 4 · 06:00J. Levicky1.83211851D. Oborny1.8311311113WOct 2 · 09:30J. Levicky2.25111113113J. Schwan1.581351191WOct 2 · 08:30J. Levicky1.8311179113J. Mikula1.839151191WOct 2 · 07:00J. Levicky2.7511114113J. Schwan1.40781181WOct 2 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.3014881182J. Levicky3.401211117113WSep 28 · 17:00J. Levicky1.73138411113D. Oborny2.00111111992LSep 28 · 16:00J. Levicky1.8057100J. Stoch1.911111123LSep 28 · 15:30D. Oborny1.83111210113J. Levicky1.837101251WSep 28 · 14:00J. Levicky1.731111113M. Heczko2.008850
Upcoming Matches
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J. Levicky
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