TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Skakal vs Ondrej Cmerda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113113114113––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Skakal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Skakal above · Ondrej Cmerda below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 67 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Martin Skakal at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skakal 3–0 Ondrej Cmerda Ondrej Cmerda has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cmerda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Skakal
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skakal 1738 vs Cmerda 1643
Skakal
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skakal 60% vs Cmerda 0%
Skakal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skakal 70% vs Cmerda 20%
Skakal
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skakal -2 · Cmerda -6
Cmerda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skakal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmerda form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkakal 1.833 / Cmerda 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skakal)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13238447
Skakal1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Cmerda1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkakal3wins
AwayCmerda0wins
Skakal leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skakal2Cmerda1n = 3Skakal took 2 of 3
S2Skakal3Cmerda0n = 3Skakal took 3 of 3
S3Skakal3Cmerda0n = 3Skakal took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkakalCmerdaS − CBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.722.3+15.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkakalCmerdaBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 185 vs 167 / 33053.5%50.6%99 / 185 vs 167 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkakalSkakal 1.83/Cmerda 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skakal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skakal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 4 · 18:30M. Skakal44111111113O. Cmerda23133431
WSep 30 · 18:30M. Skakal341111123O. Cmerda1826100
WSep 28 · 20:30M. Skakal351111133O. Cmerda2687110
M. Skakal10
LOct 4 · 20:00T. Franek1.6741111113M. Skakal2.10117691WOct 4 · 19:00V. Vejvoda3.75812731M. Skakal1.25111011113LOct 1 · 03:30M. Wagner1.771111123M. Skakal1.9399100LOct 1 · 02:30M. Skakal1.61811381J. Tazler2.2011811113WOct 1 · 01:30M. Wagner2.2511961172M. Skakal1.57711119113WOct 1 · 00:00M. Skakal1.441312113S. Kasnik2.63111040WSep 30 · 23:00M. Regner2.507650M. Skakal1.501111113WSep 30 · 21:30M. Skakal2.20711117113R. Rose1.6011681162LSep 30 · 20:00R. Rose1.8311811113M. Skakal1.83511691WSep 30 · 19:00O. Svacha1.61812991M. Skakal2.20111011113
O. Cmerda10
WOct 4 · 19:30O. Cmerda2.101112133T. Franek1.67910110LSep 30 · 20:59O. Svacha1.80111210113O. Cmerda1.917101291LSep 30 · 20:30O. Svacha1.831111128113O. Cmerda1.8349141182LSep 30 · 19:30O. Cmerda1.80611681R. Rose1.9111511113LSep 30 · 18:30M. Skakal1.611111123O. Cmerda2.2026100LSep 28 · 21:00O. Cmerda1.80411681V. Nohejl1.9111411113LSep 28 · 20:30O. Cmerda1.6787110M. Skakal2.101111133WSep 28 · 19:00O. Cmerda1.7311125113V. Nohejl2.009101161LSep 28 · 18:00R. Urbaniec2.00111110113O. Cmerda1.73891281LSep 22 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.10812119113O. Cmerda1.65111091162
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