TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Steffan vs Ondrej Fejtek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1167111188111210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Ondrej Fejtek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Jan Steffan at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 4–2 Ondrej Fejtek Ondrej Fejtek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2754.0%Our read57.8%to break even at 1.73
short by 3.8pp57.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.73 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Steffan
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Steffan
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1431 vs Fejtek 1459
Fejtek
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 20% vs Fejtek 60%
Fejtek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 20% vs Fejtek 60%
Fejtek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan -3 · Fejtek -1
Steffan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Steffan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.73 / Fejtek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Steffan)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13236843
Steffan1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 116 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it89% 59 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it80% 89 of 112
Fejtek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSteffan4wins
AwayFejtek2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderSteffan leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan80%4 of 5
AwayFejtekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan5Fejtek1n = 6Steffan took 5 of 6
S2Steffan2Fejtek4n = 6Fejtek took 4 of 6
S3Steffan3Fejtek3n = 6split evenly
S4Steffan3Fejtek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSteffanFejtekS − FBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match39.539.50.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanFejtekBasisWin rate · lifetime462 / 967 vs 40 / 7447.8%54.1%462 / 967 vs 40 / 74Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanSteffan 1.73/Fejtek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 3 · 07:30J. Steffan49117118123O. Fejtek46611811102
WSep 30 · 01:00J. Steffan4312911113O. Fejtek351011591
WSep 11 · 07:00J. Steffan47131112113O. Fejtek431191491
LAug 31 · 20:00J. Steffan37118991O. Fejtek3961111113
LOct 22 · 07:30J. Steffan23811311O. Fejtek4211911113
WOct 20 · 02:00J. Steffan3811511113O. Fejtek32811671
J. Steffan10
LOct 3 · 06:28V. Nohejl1.8311811113J. Steffan1.83911271LOct 2 · 01:30J. Steffan2.63811891M. Placek1.4411711113LOct 2 · 00:30K. Darin1.5371111113J. Steffan2.38117491WOct 1 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.836470J. Steffan1.831111113LOct 1 · 22:30J. Steffan1.91139130P. Picek1.801511153LOct 1 · 09:00J. Jnr1.60111110113J. Steffan2.20851231LOct 1 · 08:30J. Dedek1.401111113J. Steffan2.758670LOct 1 · 07:30J. Steffan2.38134611112K. Darin1.531111117133LOct 1 · 06:30J. Jnr1.61711119113J. Steffan2.2011851172WSep 30 · 03:28M. Placek1.40511991J. Steffan2.7511911113
O. Fejtek10
LOct 3 · 06:00O. Fejtek1.57114751J. Didi2.2571111113WOct 1 · 03:30V. Kosar1.7251191362O. Fejtek2.001191111113WOct 1 · 02:30J. Didi1.6744121172O. Fejtek2.101111108113LOct 1 · 01:00V. Kosar2.10111111113O. Fejtek1.67137861WSep 30 · 23:30O. Fejtek1.801120113A. Svoboda1.9161830WSep 30 · 22:00O. Fejtek1.50911118123R. Bartunek2.50118611102WSep 30 · 02:58O. Fejtek1.53914411113P. Picek2.38111211582WSep 30 · 02:00O. Fejtek1.6711147113R. Bartunek2.108121171LSep 30 · 01:00O. Fejtek1.831011591J. Steffan1.8312911113LSep 30 · 00:00M. Placek2.00111112133O. Fejtek1.734914111
Upcoming Matches
J. Steffan
Oct 3 · 08:30J. Steffan1.82J. Didi1.88—Oct 3 · 10:30J. Steffan3.00F. Briza1.34—Oct 3 · 11:00J. Steffan—M. Kolar——Oct 3 · 12:00J. Steffan—D. Horak——Oct 3 · 22:30J. Steffan2.75M. Placek1.40—Oct 4 · 00:00J. Steffan1.67O. Kucirek2.10—Oct 4 · 01:00J. Steffan1.61T. Andrle2.20—Oct 4 · 02:00J. Steffan1.73J. Didi2.00—
O. Fejtek
Nothing scheduled
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