TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Mrykh vs Oleksandr Zhyrnov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9118111113––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:17 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 63 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Maksym Mrykh at 62.9%
63 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 12–9 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1762.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mrykh
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Mrykh
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1640 vs Zhyrnov 1685
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 60% vs Zhyrnov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 30% vs Zhyrnov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh +1 · Zhyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Mrykh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.50 / Zhyrnov 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Mrykh)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13235011
Mrykh1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 58 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it79% 42 of 53
Zhyrnov2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 59 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh5wins
AwayZhyrnov5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh83.3%5 of 6
AwayZhyrnov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh6Zhyrnov4n = 10Mrykh took 6 of 10
S2Mrykh5Zhyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrykh5Zhyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrykh3Zhyrnov2n = 5Mrykh took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhZhyrnovM − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.032.6+2.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 468 vs 388 / 76946.4%50.5%217 / 468 vs 388 / 769Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhMrykh 1.50/Zhyrnov 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 06:20M. Mrykh2898110O. Zhyrnov351111133
WSep 28 · 14:40M. Mrykh331111113O. Zhyrnov217770
LSep 26 · 09:50M. Mrykh4791181182O. Zhyrnov46116117113
LSep 24 · 17:00M. Mrykh334711111O. Zhyrnov4211117133
WSep 12 · 06:20M. Mrykh331111113O. Zhyrnov259880
LSep 8 · 06:50M. Mrykh31116591O. Zhyrnov3741111113
WJul 26 · 09:35M. Mrykh341112113O. Zhyrnov2781090
WJul 22 · 10:40M. Mrykh4111711123O. Zhyrnov334118101
WJul 19 · 09:00M. Mrykh4111118113O. Zhyrnov24511171
LJul 16 · 16:40M. Mrykh29101180O. Zhyrnov361213113
M. Mrykh10
WOct 2 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.80811971M. Mrykh1.9111911113LOct 2 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.10111151392A. Derevianko1.67981115113LOct 2 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.91981111122O. Strutinskiy1.80111189143WOct 2 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.801111123I. Nitchenko1.9177100WOct 2 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.831111113Y. Riadynskyi1.837890LSep 29 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.83112611113M. Mrykh1.8371111972LSep 29 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0021161192V. Savoliuk1.73118116113LSep 29 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83129130O. Strutinskiy1.831411153LSep 29 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.2091121152A. Derevianko1.61117119113LSep 29 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.6731011141I. Nitchenko2.1011124163
O. Zhyrnov10
WOct 3 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.57511110O. Zhyrnov2.251113133LOct 1 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.44891181V. Merzlikin2.6311118113WOct 1 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov2.00912119113E. Hrytsenko1.73111071152WOct 1 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.4011114113Y. Holoborodko2.75831191WOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840LOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113WSep 28 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.73911951O. Zhyrnov2.0011711113LSep 28 · 16:10A. Derevianko1.401313133O. Zhyrnov2.751111110LSep 28 · 14:40M. Mrykh1.571111113O. Zhyrnov2.257770LSep 28 · 12:40O. Strutinskiy1.301111912113O. Zhyrnov3.4018111462
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