TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Sabuka vs Pavel Moulis 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11515131412––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched: 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 70 set 3, 14-12 · our read held Pavel Moulis at 57.6%
70 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 2–5 Pavel Moulis David Sabuka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5557.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 7.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Moulis
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Moulis
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1400 vs Moulis 1321
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 80% vs Moulis 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 70% vs Moulis 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +1 · Moulis +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Moulis) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 2.375 / Moulis 1.533
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Moulis)-7.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234410
Sabuka2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 23 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Moulis1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 32 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it76% 28 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSabuka2wins
AwayMoulis5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMoulis leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSabukan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMoulis100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka2Moulis5n = 7Moulis took 5 of 7
S2Sabuka2Moulis5n = 7Moulis took 5 of 7
S3Sabuka5Moulis2n = 7Sabuka took 5 of 7
S4Sabuka2Moulis4n = 6Moulis took 4 of 6
S5Sabuka1Moulis2n = 3Moulis took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSabukaMoulisS − MBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match36.341.9−5.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 524 vs 191 / 43747.9%43.7%251 / 524 vs 191 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisSabuka 2.38/Moulis 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.6%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka4488111162P. Moulis46111185113
LAug 30 · 10:00D. Sabuka4891113782P. Moulis521181111113
LAug 1 · 20:00D. Sabuka1715110P. Moulis351111133
LJul 23 · 12:00D. Sabuka25411641P. Moulis4211911113
LJul 20 · 06:30D. Sabuka34681191P. Moulis4111118113
WApr 24 · 11:45D. Sabuka44115116113P. Moulis4481171172
WApr 21 · 11:00D. Sabuka4211812113P. Moulis336111061
D. Sabuka10
LOct 3 · 19:30M. Holub1.83711114113D. Sabuka1.8311981172WOct 3 · 19:00D. Sabuka1.50111145113J. Jnr2.5029111172WOct 2 · 12:38M. Hasman1.507880D. Sabuka2.501111113LOct 2 · 11:30D. Sabuka2.2581111762M. Hasman1.57116911113WOct 2 · 10:30D. Sabuka3.25911711113M. Melisek1.3311811872WOct 2 · 09:30D. Sabuka1.5711114113J. Jnr2.25271191WSep 30 · 09:08D. Sabuka2.001214123M. Obraz1.731012100LSep 30 · 08:00M. Obraz1.8311711113D. Sabuka1.83811791LSep 30 · 07:00A. Dvoracek1.73118118123D. Sabuka2.00811611102WSep 30 · 05:30P. Cizek1.8351111692D. Sabuka1.83115611113
P. Moulis10
WOct 3 · 18:30M. Holub2.20713771P. Moulis1.61111111113WOct 1 · 09:13P. Moulis1.91111110113L. Krutina1.80941261LOct 1 · 08:00P. Moulis2.50791111102M. Obraz1.50111188123WOct 1 · 06:30P. Cizek1.618970P. Moulis2.201111113WOct 1 · 06:00L. Krutina1.617612101P. Moulis2.20111110123WSep 24 · 08:34P. Moulis2.5031211113V. Kral1.501110471LSep 24 · 08:00J. Puk1.6111811113P. Moulis2.20911861LSep 24 · 07:00V. Kral1.7311116113P. Moulis2.00671191LSep 24 · 05:30M. Snizek1.5011511113P. Moulis2.50211161WSep 23 · 09:09P. Moulis2.63111110113L. Krutina1.44841231
Upcoming Matches
D. Sabuka
Nothing scheduled
P. Moulis
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