TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Stefek vs Miroslav Barta 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1185111012711––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:56 and never touched: 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Barta to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Miroslav Barta below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Miroslav Barta at 57.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 7–7 Miroslav Barta Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Barta beat Stefek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5657.8%Our read48.8%to break even at 2.05
clears by 9.0pp48.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.05 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (55%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1341 vs Barta 1325
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 20% vs Barta 60%
Barta
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 40% vs Barta 70%
Barta
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -2 · Barta -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Barta) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barta form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.70 / Barta 2.05
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Barta)+9.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13234034
Stefek1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 122 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it77% 89 of 115
Barta2.05
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 67 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek4wins
AwayBarta6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBarta leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek75%3 of 4
AwayBarta83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Barta6n = 10Barta took 6 of 10
S2Stefek7Barta3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S3Stefek5Barta5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek1Barta6n = 7Barta took 6 of 7
S5Stefek2Barta3n = 5Barta took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekBartaS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.940.6−3.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekBartaBasisWin rate · lifetime614 / 1279 vs 251 / 53748%46.7%614 / 1279 vs 251 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartaStefek 1.70/Barta 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Barta · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Barta won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 15:30M. Stefek54511111892M. Barta54115720113
LSep 6 · 10:00M. Stefek196670M. Barta331111113
WAug 4 · 18:30M. Stefek47111168113M. Barta4559111192
WAug 2 · 08:30M. Stefek331111113M. Barta248880
LJul 19 · 09:00M. Stefek93420M. Barta331111113
LJul 19 · 07:30M. Stefek32591171M. Barta4211119113
WMay 18 · 21:00M. Stefek47111195113M. Barta4587111182
WMay 18 · 18:30M. Stefek4491311113M. Barta321111551
LMay 16 · 09:00M. Stefek4091111452M. Barta45116611113
LMay 16 · 08:00M. Stefek4413118392M. Barta531191111113
M. Stefek10
LOct 2 · 16:00M. Stefek1.679950M. Vilhan2.101111113LOct 2 · 15:30M. Barta2.10115720113M. Stefek1.67511111892WOct 2 · 14:00M. Stefek1.911314113M. Novotny1.80111290LOct 2 · 09:06M. Chalupnicek2.25111191113M. Stefek1.5717111192LOct 2 · 08:00V. Pecka1.611311113M. Stefek2.2011890WOct 2 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek2.756117111M. Stefek1.4011411133LOct 2 · 06:30M. Stefek1.36111131092V. Hruska Sr3.00691112113WOct 1 · 03:00M. Stefek1.441311113J. Framberk2.6311680WOct 1 · 02:30M. Stefek1.671311113M. Novak2.1011950LOct 1 · 01:30J. Briska1.501111113M. Stefek2.505730
M. Barta10
LOct 2 · 16:30M. Novotny1.501111113M. Barta2.508280WOct 2 · 15:30M. Barta2.10115720113M. Stefek1.67511111892LOct 2 · 14:30M. Vilhan1.61119118173M. Barta2.20811611152WOct 1 · 21:30M. Barta1.4016129113M. Lubas2.7514101131WOct 1 · 20:30M. Lubas2.38101170M. Barta1.531213113WOct 1 · 19:30M. Barta1.401111113M. Syroha2.759840WOct 1 · 18:30M. Varcl1.73116841M. Barta2.0061111113WSep 30 · 21:00M. Barta2.5081111113P. Berdych1.50115461WSep 30 · 20:00M. Barta2.5071111113P. Bruzek1.50119891LSep 30 · 19:30M. Novotny1.6111118113M. Barta2.20571191
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