TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Stefek vs Vaclav Hruska Sr 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161193111012911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:22 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Vaclav Hruska Sr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Martin Stefek at 70.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 26–10 Vaclav Hruska Sr Vaclav Hruska Sr has won 10 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2270.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-10 in 36
Stefek
Wrong
gap of 16 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1377 vs Hruska Sr 1350
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Hruska Sr 40%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Hruska Sr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +2 · Hruska Sr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.363 / Hruska Sr 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Stefek)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227024
Stefek1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 01)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 122 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it77% 89 of 115
Hruska Sr3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 78 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back22% 26 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek7wins
AwayHruska Sr3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek66.7%4 of 6
AwayHruska Sr25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek6Hruska Sr4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Stefek6Hruska Sr4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S3Stefek5Hruska Sr5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek7Hruska Sr2n = 9Stefek took 7 of 9
S5Stefek1Hruska Sr2n = 3Hruska Sr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekHruska SrS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.638.4+3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekHruska SrBasisWin rate · lifetime613 / 1274 vs 470 / 100048.1%47%613 / 1274 vs 470 / 1000Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.36/Hruska Sr 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hruska Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:30M. Stefek44111131092V. Hruska Sr49691112113
WSep 22 · 13:30M. Stefek4711169113V. Hruska Sr357141131
LSep 22 · 11:30M. Stefek3911741162V. Hruska Sr40411113113
WSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek4181111113V. Hruska Sr30119551
WJun 26 · 10:30M. Stefek4111117123V. Hruska Sr367811101
LJun 26 · 07:30M. Stefek2781090V. Hruska Sr341112113
WJun 25 · 12:00M. Stefek4011711113V. Hruska Sr31811481
WJun 23 · 10:30M. Stefek4291111113V. Hruska Sr34118961
WMay 19 · 06:00M. Stefek46812112133V. Hruska Sr511110811112
WMay 15 · 11:30M. Stefek4914915113V. Hruska Sr4412111381
M. Stefek10
WOct 2 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek2.756117111M. Stefek1.4011411133WOct 1 · 03:00M. Stefek1.441311113J. Framberk2.6311680WOct 1 · 02:30M. Stefek1.671311113M. Novak2.1011950LOct 1 · 01:30J. Briska1.501111113M. Stefek2.505730WOct 1 · 00:00M. Stefek1.441111113J. Framberk2.636680LSep 30 · 23:00V. Dolezal1.571111113M. Stefek2.257670LSep 28 · 09:00J. Moravek1.50981112113M. Stefek2.50111171092LSep 28 · 08:30M. Stefek2.6311710101A. Svoboda1.4491112123LSep 28 · 07:00M. Stefek2.3551111862J. Moravek1.53117811113LSep 28 · 06:00T. Nohejl1.4411128113M. Stefek2.637101121
V. Hruska Sr10
WOct 2 · 07:30V. Hruska Sr2.63115311113V. Pecka1.4471111742WSep 30 · 20:59V. Hruska Sr1.5311811113J. Pelikan2.38511951LSep 30 · 20:30V. Hruska Sr2.20115121182V. Dolezal1.61511149113LSep 30 · 19:00V. Hruska Sr2.501314911102J. Framberk1.501512115123WSep 30 · 18:00J. Pelikan2.631111491V. Hruska Sr1.4471311113LSep 29 · 03:00V. Hruska Sr2.25111188102J. Briska1.57961111123LSep 29 · 02:00M. Ulrych1.331112113V. Hruska Sr3.2551050LSep 29 · 00:30V. Hruska Sr2.10571111122J. Strnad1.67111187143WSep 28 · 23:00V. Hruska Sr2.1011118113J. Briska1.67761191WSep 28 · 22:00T. Regner1.36361141V. Hruska Sr3.0011118113
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