TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Stefek vs Jan Framberk 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:58 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Jan Framberk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Martin Stefek at 64.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 8–6 Jan Framberk Jan Framberk has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5864.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Stefek
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1348 vs Framberk 1361
Framberk
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 0% vs Framberk 60%
Framberk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 20% vs Framberk 60%
Framberk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -6 · Framberk +1
Stefek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Framberk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.444 / Framberk 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Stefek)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216942
Stefek1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 121 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it77% 88 of 114
Framberk2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 28 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek5wins
AwayFramberk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek80%4 of 5
AwayFramberk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Framberk5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek8Framberk2n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S3Stefek5Framberk5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek2Framberk3n = 5Framberk took 3 of 5
S5Stefek1Framberk2n = 3Framberk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekFramberkS − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.3+0.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekFramberkBasisWin rate · lifetime609 / 1268 vs 90 / 16848%53.6%609 / 1268 vs 90 / 168Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.44/Framberk 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 02:00M. Stefek331111113J. Framberk175840
WSep 7 · 22:00M. Stefek351211123J. Framberk25105100
LAug 27 · 20:00M. Stefek4411117692J. Framberk48781111113
WAug 3 · 00:00M. Stefek331111113J. Framberk188910
WJul 29 · 18:30M. Stefek371115113J. Framberk3091380
LJul 29 · 15:00M. Stefek349123101J. Framberk44111011123
LJul 22 · 17:28M. Stefek45134111162J. Framberk54151189113
WJul 22 · 14:30M. Stefek45311911113J. Framberk4411711872
LJun 16 · 17:00M. Stefek341011851J. Framberk4012611113
LJun 16 · 15:00M. Stefek145450J. Framberk331111113
M. Stefek10
LSep 30 · 23:00V. Dolezal1.571111113M. Stefek2.257670LSep 28 · 09:00J. Moravek1.50981112113M. Stefek2.50111171092LSep 28 · 08:30M. Stefek2.6311710101A. Svoboda1.4491112123LSep 28 · 07:00M. Stefek2.3551111862J. Moravek1.53117811113LSep 28 · 06:00T. Nohejl1.4411128113M. Stefek2.637101121LSep 27 · 02:59M. Stefek2.75711121182V. Dolezal1.40119146113WSep 27 · 01:30M. Stefek2.101612113J. Didi1.67141070LSep 27 · 00:30V. Dolezal1.531011811113M. Stefek2.3812811842WSep 26 · 23:30R. Urban1.402380M. Stefek2.751111113LSep 26 · 22:30M. Stefek2.258620D. Barton1.571111113
J. Framberk10
WSep 30 · 22:30J. Briska1.808380J. Framberk1.911111113LSep 30 · 21:30V. Dolezal1.2511119113J. Framberk3.30781161WSep 30 · 20:00J. Pelikan2.252350J. Framberk1.571111113WSep 30 · 19:00V. Hruska Sr2.501314911102J. Framberk1.501512115123LSep 30 · 18:28J. Framberk3.251251151V. Dolezal1.33101113113LSep 22 · 21:30T. Regner2.101111113J. Framberk1.665990LSep 22 · 20:30M. Barta2.751111113J. Framberk1.404850WSep 22 · 19:30J. Framberk1.731111113P. Franc2.007560WSep 22 · 18:30T. Regner2.25114891J. Framberk1.5791111113WSep 22 · 17:00P. Berdych1.83671111112J. Framberk1.83111188133
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