TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Stefek vs Martin Vilhan 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911511––––
Martin Vilhan
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Martin Vilhan below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Martin Stefek at 55.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 0–1 Martin Vilhan Martin Stefek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5055.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1341 vs Vilhan 1421
Vilhan
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Vilhan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Vilhan 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Vilhan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.666 / Vilhan 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Stefek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228177
Stefek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 122 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it77% 89 of 115
Vilhan2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStefek0wins
AwayVilhan1wins
Vilhan leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricStefekVilhanS − VBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match23.033.0−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekVilhanBasisWin rate · lifetime614 / 1279 vs 31 / 6048%51.7%614 / 1279 vs 31 / 60Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.67/Vilhan 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vilhan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 2 · 16:00M. Stefek239950M. Vilhan331111113
M. Stefek10
LOct 2 · 15:30M. Barta2.10115720113M. Stefek1.67511111892WOct 2 · 14:00M. Stefek1.911314113M. Novotny1.80111290LOct 2 · 09:06M. Chalupnicek2.25111191113M. Stefek1.5717111192LOct 2 · 08:00V. Pecka1.611311113M. Stefek2.2011890WOct 2 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek2.756117111M. Stefek1.4011411133LOct 2 · 06:30M. Stefek1.36111131092V. Hruska Sr3.00691112113WOct 1 · 03:00M. Stefek1.441311113J. Framberk2.6311680WOct 1 · 02:30M. Stefek1.671311113M. Novak2.1011950LOct 1 · 01:30J. Briska1.501111113M. Stefek2.505730WOct 1 · 00:00M. Stefek1.441111113J. Framberk2.636680
M. Vilhan10
LOct 2 · 15:00M. Novotny2.38111198113M. Vilhan1.5399111162WOct 2 · 14:30M. Vilhan1.61119118173M. Barta2.20811611152LJul 13 · 17:00M. Vilhan2.2011811982M. Longin1.61911811113WJul 13 · 16:30M. Vilhan1.67131162113P. Vojtech2.10118111172LJul 13 · 15:00M. Vilhan1.838560V. Nohejl1.831111113WJul 13 · 14:00M. Longin1.4075100M. Vilhan2.751111123LJul 10 · 21:06J. Moravek—1111113M. Vilhan—9180LJul 10 · 20:00T. Andrle1.571212113M. Vilhan2.25101060LJul 10 · 19:00J. Moravek1.671111113M. Vilhan2.109930WJul 10 · 18:30M. Vilhan2.20119411113R. Bartunek1.6131111842
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