TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Novotny vs Martin Vilhan 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119119911811116
Martin Vilhan
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Vilhan to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Martin Vilhan below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 96 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Martin Vilhan at 63.6%
96 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 1–3 Martin Vilhan Miroslav Novotny has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5963.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vilhan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Vilhan
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1309 vs Vilhan 1424
Vilhan
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 80% vs Vilhan 60%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 80% vs Vilhan 40%
Novotny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -1 · Vilhan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Vilhan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.375 / Vilhan 1.533
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Vilhan)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228009
Novotny2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog34% won 14 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Vilhan1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNovotny1wins
AwayVilhan3wins
Vilhan leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny2Vilhan2n = 4split evenly
S2Novotny0Vilhan4n = 4Vilhan took 4 of 4
S3Novotny1Vilhan3n = 4Vilhan took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricNovotnyVilhanN − VBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match31.837.5−5.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyVilhanBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 334 vs 31 / 6046.7%51.7%156 / 334 vs 31 / 60Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VilhanNovotny 2.38/Vilhan 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Vilhan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 4 · 18:15M. Novotny2687110M. Vilhan351111133
LMay 24 · 18:30M. Novotny401310891M. Vilhan45111211113
WMay 7 · 14:00M. Novotny3911311143M. Vilhan376118121
LJan 3 · 15:30M. Novotny226970M. Vilhan331111113
M. Novotny10
LOct 2 · 14:00M. Stefek1.911314113M. Novotny1.80111290WSep 30 · 21:30M. Novotny1.651310118113P. Bruzek2.10111251182WSep 30 · 20:30P. Berdych2.105680M. Novotny1.671111113WSep 30 · 19:30M. Novotny1.6111118113M. Barta2.20571191WSep 30 · 18:30P. Bruzek1.44613761M. Novotny2.63111111113WSep 30 · 17:30M. Novotny1.30111011113J. Grohsgott3.10712651WSep 30 · 16:00J. Grohsgott3.006101171M. Novotny1.3611125113WSep 30 · 15:00M. Syroha1.8041111462M. Novotny1.91118811113WSep 30 · 14:30M. Novotny2.1013811113L. Havrda1.671111681LSep 26 · 02:00P. Berdych2.10581111113M. Novotny1.6711117782
M. Vilhan10
WOct 2 · 14:30M. Vilhan1.61119118173M. Barta2.20811611152LJul 13 · 17:00M. Vilhan2.2011811982M. Longin1.61911811113WJul 13 · 16:30M. Vilhan1.67131162113P. Vojtech2.10118111172LJul 13 · 15:00M. Vilhan1.838560V. Nohejl1.831111113WJul 13 · 14:00M. Longin1.4075100M. Vilhan2.751111123LJul 10 · 21:06J. Moravek—1111113M. Vilhan—9180LJul 10 · 20:00T. Andrle1.571212113M. Vilhan2.25101060LJul 10 · 19:00J. Moravek1.671111113M. Vilhan2.109930WJul 10 · 18:30M. Vilhan2.20119411113R. Bartunek1.6131111842LJul 4 · 21:30V. Hruska Sr1.8011116113M. Vilhan1.91851181
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