TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomasz Stachera vs Mateusz Szymanski 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111145111210119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:50 and never touched: 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeMateusz Szymanski to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
93 points played in total.
Set by set
9111145111210119
H2H Tomasz Stachera 0–3 Mateusz Szymanski Tomasz Stachera has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5067.6%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
clears by 0.9pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Szymanski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Szymanski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stachera 1492 vs Szymanski 1635
Szymanski
Wrong
both rated, 143 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stachera 40% vs Szymanski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stachera 40% vs Szymanski 70%
Szymanski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stachera -2 · Szymanski -3
Szymanski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Szymanski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szymanski form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStachera 2.40 / Szymanski 1.50
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Szymanski)+0.9pp
TT Cup · #13233902
Stachera2.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Szymanski1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it69% 20 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStachera0wins
AwaySzymanski3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSzymanski leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stachera2Szymanski1n = 3Stachera took 2 of 3
S2Stachera0Szymanski3n = 3Szymanski took 3 of 3
S3Stachera1Szymanski2n = 3Szymanski took 2 of 3
S4Stachera1Szymanski2n = 3Szymanski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStacheraSzymanskiStachera − SzymanskiBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.746.0−9.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStacheraSzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 252 vs 153 / 28043.3%54.6%109 / 252 vs 153 / 280Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzymanskiStachera 2.40/Szymanski 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.6%
Szymanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stachera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 11 · 17:00T. Stachera30119551M. Szymanski4181111113
LAug 28 · 15:30T. Stachera48111081722M. Szymanski545121115113
LMar 13 · 22:00T. Stachera321031181M. Szymanski4312119113
T. Stachera10
LOct 2 · 15:00T. Stachera1.91116531K. Guzy1.8081111113LOct 2 · 14:00T. Stachera3.402390A. Veliiev1.281111113WSep 25 · 22:30D. Bucko1.46461181T. Stachera2.5511118113LSep 25 · 20:00T. Stachera2.4511711692D. Bucko1.49911911113WSep 25 · 18:30T. Stachera1.901311113K. Zapala1.8011790LSep 25 · 17:00T. Stachera1.4191117121G. Rokita2.6011719143WSep 25 · 15:00T. Stachera2.601212113P. Odelski1.44101070WSep 25 · 14:00T. Stachera2.90941111113K. Guzy1.3711117772LSep 17 · 21:30T. Stachera—111311492B. Gola—815711113LSep 17 · 21:00P. Odelski1.601111113T. Stachera2.104590
M. Szymanski10
LOct 2 · 16:00K. Zapala2.55111111113M. Szymanski1.44581341LOct 2 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.504760A. Veliiev1.461111113LSep 13 · 14:35M. Szymanski2.208490A. Duch1.601111113WSep 13 · 12:35D. Bucko1.869111361M. Szymanski1.83111311113WSep 13 · 11:35K. Zapala2.257360M. Szymanski1.571111113WSep 13 · 10:05B. Bartosz2.20131051162M. Szymanski1.601112117113WSep 13 · 07:35K. Guzy1.706890M. Szymanski2.051111113WSep 13 · 06:05A. Duch1.9013690M. Szymanski1.801511113WSep 12 · 20:15M. Szymanski2.05113117113K. Guzy1.6841161142WSep 12 · 19:05K. Zapala2.101178101M. Szymanski1.6081111123
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