TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Dvorak vs Jan Hendrych 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115117––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:19 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jan Hendrych below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 29–29 Jan Hendrych Dead even across their 58 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:1954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hendrych
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-29 in 58
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1514 vs Hendrych 1474
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Hendrych 20%
Dvorak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 70% vs Hendrych 30%
Dvorak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Hendrych -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hendrych form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.833 / Hendrych 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13232192
Dvorak1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Hendrych1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak4wins
AwayHendrych6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHendrych leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHendrych75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak2Hendrych8n = 10Hendrych took 8 of 10
S2Dvorak8Hendrych2n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S3Dvorak3Hendrych7n = 10Hendrych took 7 of 10
S4Dvorak5Hendrych3n = 8Dvorak took 5 of 8
S5Dvorak2Hendrych3n = 5Hendrych took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakHendrychD − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.039.7+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 345 vs 260 / 51348.1%50.7%166 / 345 vs 260 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.83/Hendrych 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak331111113J. Hendrych102530
LSep 17 · 15:50M. Dvorak30612661J. Hendrych43111011113
WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak521011911113J. Hendrych4312811752
WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak3811115113J. Hendrych30681151
LAug 3 · 14:55M. Dvorak43711114102J. Hendrych48119511123
LJul 29 · 17:55M. Dvorak41101161132J. Hendrych47125118113
WJul 29 · 16:20M. Dvorak581611911113J. Hendrych5218811692
LJul 22 · 14:55M. Dvorak238870J. Hendrych331111113
LJun 30 · 16:20M. Dvorak32711951J. Hendrych4211911113
LJun 24 · 17:30M. Dvorak5099141172J. Hendrych491111124113
M. Dvorak10
WOct 2 · 17:25P. Moravec1.73812151M. Dvorak2.00111011113LOct 2 · 14:55Z. Zahradka2.10121411113M. Dvorak1.671412841LSep 29 · 18:30M. Dvorak1.91413111162J. Cerny1.80111546113WSep 29 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.73115117113Z. Zahradka2.0031151172WSep 29 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.571111113D. Tichy2.257730WSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.91111169113J. Cerny1.8098111142WSep 24 · 17:55M. Dvorak1.851211113Z. Zahradka1.8510730WSep 24 · 16:50P. Moravec1.6711812752M. Dvorak2.108111011113WSep 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.911111113J. Hendrych1.802530WSep 24 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.8311591682M. Dvorak1.832111114113
J. Hendrych10
LOct 2 · 16:55Z. Zahradka1.8011411113J. Hendrych1.91811351LOct 2 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.8311871152P. Moravec1.83811118113LSep 30 · 22:03J. Hendrych2.2048111162J. Hrncir1.61111179113WSep 30 · 20:55J. Hrncir1.5779111152J. Hendrych2.25111196113LSep 30 · 20:25M. Sulc1.401281111113J. Hendrych2.7514119582LSep 30 · 19:25J. Hendrych2.509101171M. Kulisek1.5011124113LSep 25 · 17:59J. Hendrych1.809111081P. Moravec1.9111912113LSep 25 · 16:20Z. Zahradka1.53111011113J. Hendrych2.38812721WSep 25 · 15:50D. Sochor1.91112951J. Hendrych1.8081111113LSep 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.911111113J. Hendrych1.802530
Upcoming Matches
M. Dvorak
J. Hendrych
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