TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Bartik vs Matej Holub 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113711811111––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:29 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 63 set 4, 1-11 · our read held Tomas Bartik at 59.7%
63 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2959.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1687 vs Holub 1592
Bartik
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 20% vs Holub 0%
Bartik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 20% vs Holub 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik -2 · Holub -7
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Bartik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.571 / Holub 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Bartik)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13231386
Bartik1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 74 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it98% 42 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 58 of 78
Holub2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 41 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 327 vs 123 / 22357.8%55.2%189 / 327 vs 123 / 223Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.57/Holub 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Bartik10
WOct 2 · 13:09M. Holub2.5012113872T. Bartik1.471091111113LOct 2 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.73111211113T. Bartik2.00614831LOct 2 · 10:35D. Lengal2.001211113T. Bartik1.7310730WSep 30 · 17:15F. Karel1.5897100T. Bartik2.251111123LSep 30 · 16:05F. Karel1.831111113T. Bartik1.834880LSep 30 · 15:35T. Beran2.501181111113T. Bartik1.5081113862LSep 30 · 14:35T. Bartik1.67119781M. Mastera2.1071111113LSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:05T. Bartik1.731311123F. Karel2.00116100LSep 18 · 11:05T. Bartik1.61117119102J. Ruzicka2.20911911123
M. Holub10
LOct 2 · 13:09M. Holub2.5012113872T. Bartik1.471091111113LOct 2 · 11:35M. Holub3.5065111192D. Lengal1.28111188113LOct 2 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.401211113M. Holub2.7510650LSep 26 · 13:24O. Polak1.53111112113M. Holub2.38491451LSep 26 · 12:35O. Polak1.571512811113M. Holub2.25171011882LSep 26 · 11:35M. Holub2.10115671O. Stehlik1.6761111113LSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071LSep 25 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113M. Holub2.207870WSep 25 · 12:05M. Holub1.80911111113J. Ruzicka1.9111731182LSep 25 · 11:05M. Holub1.91411111172R. Neterda1.80118913113
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