TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Hitzger vs Matej Holub 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Jakub Hitzger
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116115––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:54 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Hitzger to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Hitzger above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Jakub Hitzger at 66.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Hitzger 1–0 Matej Holub Matej Holub has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5466.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hitzger
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hitzger 1767 vs Holub 1605
Hitzger
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hitzger 40% vs Holub 0%
Hitzger
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hitzger 50% vs Holub 30%
Hitzger
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hitzger -2 · Holub -5
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Hitzger) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHitzger 1.40 / Holub 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Hitzger)-5.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229940
Hitzger1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 17 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Holub2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 26)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 41 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHitzger1wins
AwayHolub0wins
Hitzger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHitzgerHolubHitzger − HolubBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.035.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHitzgerHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 109 vs 123 / 22164.2%55.7%70 / 109 vs 123 / 221Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HitzgerHitzger 1.40/Holub 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Hitzger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hitzger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger4211812113M. Holub357111071
J. Hitzger10
LOct 2 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.80611571D. Lengal1.9111611113WOct 2 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.73111211113T. Bartik2.00614831LSep 28 · 09:50J. Hitzger1.506119101M. Mastera2.5011411123LSep 28 · 08:05J. Hitzger1.577101191O. Polak2.2511127113WSep 28 · 07:05J. Hitzger1.7381111113M. Mastera2.00115891WSep 28 · 06:05J. Hitzger1.671111139113J. Ruzicka2.10134111152LSep 26 · 13:55J. Hitzger1.9111991192O. Stehlik1.80811115113LSep 26 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.73112971O. Stehlik2.0021111113WSep 26 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.801111113O. Polak1.919890WSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071
M. Holub10
WOct 2 · 12:35T. Bartik1.57117811M. Holub2.2531111113LOct 2 · 11:35M. Holub3.5065111192D. Lengal1.28111188113LSep 26 · 13:24O. Polak1.53111112113M. Holub2.38491451LSep 26 · 12:35O. Polak1.571512811113M. Holub2.25171011882LSep 26 · 11:35M. Holub2.10115671O. Stehlik1.6761111113LSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071LSep 25 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113M. Holub2.207870WSep 25 · 12:05M. Holub1.80911111113J. Ruzicka1.9111731182LSep 25 · 11:05M. Holub1.91411111172R. Neterda1.80118913113WSep 25 · 10:05M. Holub1.67111299113K. Lahodny2.10910111152
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