TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Chlad vs Jiri Matus 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117117511911711
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:38 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timePetr Chlad to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Chlad above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Petr Chlad at 59.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlad 14–4 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 22h before this match
Chlad beat Matus 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3859.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chlad
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-4 in 18
Chlad
Wrong
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlad 1419 vs Matus 1420
Matus
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlad 80% vs Matus 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlad 50% vs Matus 70%
Matus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlad +1 · Matus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Chlad) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlad 1.615 / Matus 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Chlad)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229896
Chlad1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 41 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Matus2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog49% won 29 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back33% 9 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlad9wins
AwayMatus1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChlad leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChladn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMatus12.5%1 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlad2Matus8n = 10Matus took 8 of 10
S2Chlad8Matus2n = 10Chlad took 8 of 10
S3Chlad7Matus3n = 10Chlad took 7 of 10
S4Chlad8Matus1n = 9Chlad took 8 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChladMatusC − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.137.0+4.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChladMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 294 vs 235 / 45049%52.2%144 / 294 vs 235 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChladChlad 1.61/Matus 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 07:45P. Chlad4041212123J. Matus41111010101
WSep 17 · 07:10P. Chlad3811115113J. Matus28451181
WAug 2 · 21:13P. Chlad4481411113J. Matus351112481
WAug 2 · 19:40P. Chlad4681111163J. Matus321152141
WJul 4 · 16:40P. Chlad3521111113J. Matus27116731
LJul 4 · 16:10P. Chlad2561090J. Matus341112113
WJun 30 · 08:55P. Chlad46811312123J. Matus511191110102
WJun 30 · 07:45P. Chlad4791311143J. Matus3711113121
WJun 15 · 21:15P. Chlad4211911113J. Matus37911891
WJun 15 · 19:45P. Chlad48711118113J. Matus4811891192
P. Chlad10
WOct 2 · 07:40P. Chlad1.36411511113J. Sindler3.0011611872WOct 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.50101111113P. Jokiel2.50129661WOct 1 · 13:15D. Stefek1.91911611112P. Chlad1.80116115133LOct 1 · 11:45P. Chlad1.6191311682D. Stefek2.201111511113WOct 1 · 10:45P. Chlad1.837131011113P. Sturma1.83111112392WOct 1 · 09:45P. Chlad1.801111123L. Krupnik Jr1.9157100WOct 1 · 08:53D. Stefek4.508111141P. Chlad1.1711138113WOct 1 · 07:45P. Chlad1.6741212123J. Matus2.10111010101LOct 1 · 06:45P. Chlad1.8091171182O. Vaclahovsky1.91119118113LOct 1 · 05:45P. Chlad1.579111113102D. Stefek2.25112915123
J. Matus10
WOct 2 · 07:10J. Matus2.0091111113J. Sindler1.73119691WOct 1 · 09:25J. Matus2.101111119113O. Vaclahovsky1.6755131172LOct 1 · 07:45P. Chlad1.6741212123J. Matus2.10111010101WOct 1 · 07:15D. Stefek1.9151111742J. Matus1.80117711113WOct 1 · 06:15J. Matus2.10411811123O. Vaclahovsky1.67117113102WSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus1.5711116113M. Sobota2.25381141LSep 29 · 07:45J. Matus1.678116121D. Stefek2.1011811143LSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus1.5713812682M. Sobota2.2511111011113WSep 29 · 05:45J. Matus1.83111189113R. Zajac1.8386111122WSep 22 · 09:15J. Matus1.731111143A. Strelec2.0097120
Upcoming Matches
P. Chlad
Nothing scheduled
J. Matus
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