TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Chlad vs Patrik Jokiel 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012119116116––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:38 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timePetr Chlad to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Chlad above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Petr Chlad at 64.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlad 16–5 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3864.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chlad
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-5 in 21
Chlad
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlad 1418 vs Jokiel 1352
Chlad
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlad 60% vs Jokiel 80%
Jokiel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlad 50% vs Jokiel 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlad -1 · Jokiel +4
Jokiel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Chlad) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlad 1.50 / Jokiel 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Chlad)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13230045
Chlad1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 41 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Jokiel2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 73 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back36% 28 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlad8wins
AwayJokiel2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChlad leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlad100%4 of 4
AwayJokiel33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlad4Jokiel6n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S2Chlad5Jokiel5n = 10split evenly
S3Chlad8Jokiel2n = 10Chlad took 8 of 10
S4Chlad5Jokiel4n = 9Chlad took 5 of 9
S5Chlad4Jokiel0n = 4Chlad took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChladJokielC − JBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.736.4+6.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChladJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 296 vs 219 / 47749%45.9%145 / 296 vs 219 / 477Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChladChlad 1.50/Jokiel 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chlad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 06:40P. Chlad43101111113P. Jokiel33129661
WSep 28 · 06:15P. Chlad3731112113P. Jokiel271121041
WSep 17 · 07:40P. Chlad49118811113P. Jokiel4281111662
LSep 4 · 17:40P. Chlad35981171P. Jokiel3611113113
WJul 19 · 12:48P. Chlad496111011113P. Jokiel4311912652
WJul 19 · 10:15P. Chlad50171111113P. Jokiel421513771
WJul 11 · 20:10P. Chlad46611117113P. Jokiel3811911162
WJun 28 · 20:40P. Chlad331111113P. Jokiel177460
WJun 28 · 18:40P. Chlad45117115113P. Jokiel4081161142
LJun 27 · 08:10P. Chlad409714101P. Jokiel46111112123
P. Chlad10
WOct 2 · 07:40P. Chlad1.36411511113J. Sindler3.0011611872LOct 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.6111115972J. Matus2.20771111113WOct 1 · 13:15D. Stefek1.91911611112P. Chlad1.80116115133LOct 1 · 11:45P. Chlad1.6191311682D. Stefek2.201111511113WOct 1 · 10:45P. Chlad1.837131011113P. Sturma1.83111112392WOct 1 · 09:45P. Chlad1.801111123L. Krupnik Jr1.9157100WOct 1 · 08:53D. Stefek4.508111141P. Chlad1.1711138113WOct 1 · 07:45P. Chlad1.6741212123J. Matus2.10111010101LOct 1 · 06:45P. Chlad1.8091171182O. Vaclahovsky1.91119118113LOct 1 · 05:45P. Chlad1.579111113102D. Stefek2.25112915123
P. Jokiel10
WOct 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.538980P. Jokiel2.381111113WSep 28 · 09:24P. Jokiel1.7311115123O. Coufal2.009711101WSep 28 · 08:15P. Jokiel1.67115124113P. Chvojka2.10911101152WSep 28 · 06:45O. Coufal1.916460P. Jokiel1.801111113LSep 28 · 06:15P. Chlad1.5031112113P. Jokiel2.501121041WSep 26 · 21:20J. Przybyla1.5711115682P. Jokiel2.25721111113WSep 26 · 20:15J. Vanous2.20781141P. Jokiel1.6111119113LSep 26 · 19:15P. Jokiel1.9131111752J. Przybyla1.80119811113LSep 26 · 17:45K. Zeman1.73101112113P. Jokiel2.001291091LSep 24 · 21:10T. Ogrocki1.5061211113P. Jokiel2.501110491
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