TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vihen Saakian vs Oleksandr Badanin 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Vihen Saakian
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1139111311118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeVihen Saakian to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVihen Saakian above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Vihen Saakian at 64.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vihen Saakian 12–7 Oleksandr Badanin Oleksandr Badanin has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5764.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Saakian
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Saakian
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saakian 1321 vs Badanin 1159
Saakian
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saakian 80% vs Badanin 60%
Saakian
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saakian 50% vs Badanin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Saakian -1 · Badanin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Saakian) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaakian 1.444 / Badanin 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Saakian)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229312
Saakian1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 40 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Badanin2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 11 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSaakian6wins
AwayBadanin4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSaakian leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaakian100%4 of 4
AwayBadanin66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saakian4Badanin6n = 10Badanin took 6 of 10
S2Saakian7Badanin3n = 10Saakian took 7 of 10
S3Saakian4Badanin6n = 10Badanin took 6 of 10
S4Saakian4Badanin2n = 6Saakian took 4 of 6
S5Saakian2Badanin1n = 3Saakian took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSaakianBadaninS − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.0+2.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSaakianBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 255 vs 152 / 31852.2%47.8%133 / 255 vs 152 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SaakianSaakian 1.44/Badanin 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Saakian · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Saakian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 30 · 05:00V. Saakian5311111010113O. Badanin4176121242
WApr 16 · 09:30V. Saakian49111111163O. Badanin401385141
WApr 14 · 10:30V. Saakian341111123O. Badanin1981100
WApr 14 · 05:30V. Saakian4311911123O. Badanin367118101
LApr 10 · 07:00V. Saakian34711881O. Badanin4111811113
LApr 6 · 10:34V. Saakian238690O. Badanin331111113
WApr 6 · 06:00V. Saakian501012511123O. Badanin511210118102
LApr 3 · 07:00V. Saakian50912111172O. Badanin531110138113
LApr 1 · 06:00V. Saakian33912120O. Badanin391114143
WMar 30 · 06:30V. Saakian341211113O. Badanin2710890
V. Saakian10
LOct 2 · 06:00V. Saakian1.1711914141Y. Urezchenko4.5041116163WSep 25 · 10:30V. Hyriavyi3.759480V. Saakian1.251111113WSep 25 · 09:30V. Saakian1.4011121112113S. Honcharenko2.7591471452WSep 25 · 08:30V. Saakian1.36121111113V. Hyriavyi3.00144551WSep 25 · 07:00V. Saakian1.171112113V. Khyzhnyak4.5041040LSep 25 · 06:00V. Saakian1.444730V. Matviichuk2.631111113WApr 30 · 10:33V. Hyriavyi2.205940V. Saakian1.611111113LApr 30 · 09:30S. Honcharenko3.751161110113V. Saakian1.2591151252LApr 30 · 08:00V. Saakian1.61117891V. Hyriavyi2.2071111113LApr 30 · 06:30V. Saakian1.8396120V. Simchuk1.831111143
O. Badanin10
WOct 2 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.255730O. Badanin1.331111113WSep 24 · 17:09V. Hyriavyi3.2511790O. Badanin1.331311113LSep 24 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.3681112113O. Badanin3.001171091LSep 24 · 15:00O. Badanin3.7521111532O. Levytskyi1.25118711113WSep 24 · 13:30O. Badanin1.5011116113A. Danylov2.50741171WSep 24 · 12:00O. Badanin1.3611119133V. Hyriavyi3.009711111LSep 16 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111113O. Badanin4.334550LSep 16 · 08:00O. Badanin4.33541151V. Simchuk1.2011116113LSep 16 · 06:30O. Badanin2.63511111132M. Zavoloka1.44119713113LSep 16 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5061111952S. Honcharenko2.50114511113
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