TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Zelezny vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811116116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:18 and never touched: 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Zelezny above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 71.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Zelezny 4–1 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Zelezny beat Cerveny Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1871.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
clears by 9.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezny 1579 vs Cerveny Jr 1527
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezny 80% vs Cerveny Jr 20%
Zelezny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezny 70% vs Cerveny Jr 50%
Zelezny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezny -1 · Cerveny Jr -3
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerveny Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezny 1.615 / Cerveny Jr 2.20
Signal prob.72% / 29%
Edge (Zelezny)+9.6pp
TT Cup · #13229301
Zelezny1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 31 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Cerveny Jr2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 41 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZelezny4wins
AwayCerveny Jr1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderZelezny leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeleznyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCerveny Jr33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezny2Cerveny Jr3n = 5Cerveny Jr took 3 of 5
S2Zelezny3Cerveny Jr2n = 5Zelezny took 3 of 5
S3Zelezny3Cerveny Jr2n = 5Zelezny took 3 of 5
S4Zelezny4Cerveny Jr1n = 5Zelezny took 4 of 5
S5Zelezny2Cerveny Jr1n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricZeleznyCerveny JrZ − CBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match46.042.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeleznyCerveny JrBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 220 vs 336 / 60653.2%55.5%117 / 220 vs 336 / 606Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyZelezny 1.61/Cerveny Jr 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 1 · 15:20D. Zelezny4381211123T. Cerveny Jr3511104101
WSep 15 · 16:20D. Zelezny50611913113T. Cerveny Jr44119111122
WJan 27 · 07:50D. Zelezny4111811113T. Cerveny Jr32711771
WJan 3 · 10:25D. Zelezny571116811113T. Cerveny Jr51614111372
LJan 3 · 08:50D. Zelezny3976111142T. Cerveny Jr48111196113
D. Zelezny10
LOct 1 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.402970T. Rein2.751111113WOct 1 · 15:20T. Cerveny Jr2.2011104101D. Zelezny1.6181211123WOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113WSep 29 · 17:48D. Zelezny1.61115911123L. Jirka2.20911114102WSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470WSep 29 · 15:20A. Krcil1.8310790D. Zelezny1.831211113LSep 29 · 14:50L. Jirka2.10111110113D. Zelezny1.67751281WSep 22 · 17:30D. Zelezny1.44811811113T. Rein2.6311711982LSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101WSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein2.63614811112D. Zelezny1.441112119133
T. Cerveny Jr10
LOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113LOct 1 · 15:20T. Cerveny Jr2.2011104101D. Zelezny1.6181211123LOct 1 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr1.3691011101T. Rein3.0011129123WSep 30 · 14:05T. Cerveny Jr1.401111123T. Rein2.7589100LSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113WSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.7551111113F. Dvorak1.40117781WSep 28 · 10:23L. Rek1.33841471T. Cerveny Jr3.25111112113LSep 28 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr3.001181171L. Rek1.3613119113WSep 28 · 07:55T. Cerveny Jr1.83911612113Z. Muhlhauser1.83119111062
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