TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Vojtech Koutnik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113911115411––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:41 and never touched: 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 75 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 68.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 8–20 Vojtech Koutnik Tomas Rein has won 8 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Koutnik beat Rein 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4168.6%Our read69.0%to break even at 1.45
short by 0.4pp69.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.45 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-20 in 28
Koutnik
Correct
gap of 12 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1404 vs Koutnik 1637
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 233 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 60% vs Koutnik 80%
Koutnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Koutnik 70%
Koutnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +1 · Koutnik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Koutnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.60 / Koutnik 1.45
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Koutnik)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13229300
Rein2.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back20% 38 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 103
Koutnik1.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 47 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein2wins
AwayKoutnik8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKoutnik77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein1Koutnik9n = 10Koutnik took 9 of 10
S2Rein7Koutnik3n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S3Rein7Koutnik3n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S4Rein4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S5Rein0Koutnik5n = 5Koutnik took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinKoutnikR − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match40.144.1−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 858 vs 176 / 36045%48.9%386 / 858 vs 176 / 360Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikRein 2.60/Koutnik 1.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.6%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 15:50T. Rein30961141V. Koutnik4111118113
LSep 22 · 14:20T. Rein3711311121V. Koutnik4313115143
LSep 16 · 13:59T. Rein33951181V. Koutnik3811115113
LSep 16 · 12:55T. Rein3951111572V. Koutnik48118711113
LSep 10 · 09:25T. Rein3961161152V. Koutnik47119115113
LSep 3 · 12:55T. Rein4791181272V. Koutnik511181110113
LAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein4581111872V. Koutnik44118311113
LAug 20 · 14:04T. Rein4311119662V. Koutnik49791111113
WAug 20 · 12:55T. Rein4441111183V. Koutnik421196161
WAug 16 · 12:55T. Rein4471411123V. Koutnik3811125101
T. Rein10
WOct 1 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.402970T. Rein2.751111113LOct 1 · 15:50T. Rein2.50961141V. Koutnik1.5011118113WOct 1 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr1.3691011101T. Rein3.0011129123LSep 30 · 14:05T. Cerveny Jr1.401111123T. Rein2.7589100WSep 30 · 12:50T. Rein3.4014101111113F. Dvorak1.30121213652LSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113WSep 29 · 22:35B. Budik1.41116111162T. Rein2.75811133113LSep 29 · 20:55B. Budik1.411213113T. Rein2.60101180LSep 29 · 20:25R. Muller1.50116711113T. Rein2.5081111392
V. Koutnik10
WOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113WOct 1 · 15:50T. Rein2.50961141V. Koutnik1.5011118113LOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113WSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl2.00411571V. Koutnik1.7311511113WSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101LSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113WSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121WSep 20 · 10:34V. Koutnik1.831111113Z. Muhlhauser1.834580LSep 20 · 09:25V. Koutnik1.701448111J. Cousin2.02121111133WSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.