TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Artem Chepurnyi vs Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1155111141210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeArtem Chepurnyi to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 69 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Artem Chepurnyi at 73.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 79–34 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 34 of their 113 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1073.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Chepurnyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
79-34 in 113
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 45 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1805 vs Kovalchuk 1612
Chepurnyi
Correct
both rated, 193 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 100% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Chepurnyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 90% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Chepurnyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi +5 · Kovalchuk +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Chepurnyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 1.363 / Kovalchuk 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Chepurnyi)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13229263
Chepurnyi1.36
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 159 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it93% 79 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it83% 121 of 146
Kovalchuk3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 79 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChepurnyi7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi100%6 of 6
AwayKovalchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi6Kovalchuk4n = 10Chepurnyi took 6 of 10
S2Chepurnyi5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Chepurnyi7Kovalchuk3n = 10Chepurnyi took 7 of 10
S4Chepurnyi4Kovalchuk2n = 6Chepurnyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChepurnyiKovalchukC − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.033.3+4.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime547 / 925 vs 325 / 76759.1%42.4%547 / 925 vs 325 / 767Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChepurnyiChepurnyi 1.36/Kovalchuk 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Chepurnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi331111113O. Kovalchuk165380
LSep 30 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi3078150O. Kovalchuk391111173
WSep 23 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi41611111123O. Kovalchuk47111196102
WAug 23 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi4011511133O. Kovalchuk399118111
LJul 23 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi4591011151O. Kovalchuk4711127173
WJul 21 · 22:25A. Chepurnyi331111113O. Kovalchuk199820
WJul 20 · 02:55A. Chepurnyi43111011113O. Kovalchuk31612851
WJul 17 · 19:25A. Chepurnyi341112113O. Kovalchuk2491050
WJul 2 · 16:55A. Chepurnyi4111118113O. Kovalchuk25261161
LJul 1 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi4011127101O. Kovalchuk46131011123
A. Chepurnyi10
WOct 1 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi3.001110119123S. Ponomarenko1.36612911102WOct 1 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.36951111123V. Kovalenko3.00111198102WOct 1 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi1.30118911173E. Rubtsov3.40911117152WSep 30 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.301111113O. Kovalchuk3.405380WSep 30 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.501112123O. Mishchenko2.50710100LSep 30 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi1.3678150O. Kovalchuk3.001111173WSep 30 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.331111143E. Rubtsov3.2522120WSep 30 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi2.6341111113S. Ponomarenko1.44118871WSep 29 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.53811711113O. Mishchenko2.3811811992WSep 29 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.401111113V. Kovalenko2.757690
O. Kovalchuk10
WOct 2 · 13:25E. Rubtsov1.9113840O. Kovalchuk1.801511113WOct 1 · 04:25E. Rubtsov1.9111331192O. Kovalchuk1.80911119113WOct 1 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk2.1011511113O. Mishchenko1.67511451WOct 1 · 00:55V. Kovalenko1.83311101152O. Kovalchuk1.83119127113LSep 30 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.301111113O. Kovalchuk3.405380LSep 30 · 21:55S. Ponomarenko1.045111011113O. Kovalchuk9.0011212942WSep 30 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi1.3678150O. Kovalchuk3.001111173LSep 30 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk9.007145101S. Ponomarenko1.04111211123LSep 30 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk1.831299111V. Kovalenko1.83101111133WSep 29 · 23:55O. Kovalchuk1.73912212113E. Rubtsov2.001110111062
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