TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Sychra vs Sebastian Kasnik 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111214911––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Sychra to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Martin Sychra @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingMartin Sychra above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 63 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Martin Sychra at 54.3%
63 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sychra 22–19 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 19 of their 41 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:1854.3%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.7pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sychra
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-19 in 41
Sychra
Wrong
gap of 3 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sychra 1676 vs Kasnik 1538
Sychra
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sychra 80% vs Kasnik 40%
Sychra
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sychra 80% vs Kasnik 30%
Sychra
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sychra +4 · Kasnik -1
Sychra
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sychra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sychra form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSychra 1.666 / Kasnik 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sychra)-5.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227650
Sychra1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 224 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it94% 102 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it79% 154 of 194
Kasnik2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 120 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back18% 29 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSychra8wins
AwayKasnik2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSychra leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSychra100%3 of 3
AwayKasnik28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sychra3Kasnik7n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S2Sychra6Kasnik4n = 10Sychra took 6 of 10
S3Sychra6Kasnik4n = 10Sychra took 6 of 10
S4Sychra7Kasnik2n = 9Sychra took 7 of 9
S5Sychra3Kasnik0n = 3Sychra took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSychraKasnikS − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.035.6+5.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSychraKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime806 / 1538 vs 469 / 100552.4%46.7%806 / 1538 vs 469 / 1005Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SychraSychra 1.67/Kasnik 2.10
Miss
What we said
54.3%
Sychra · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Martin Sychra @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
0–3
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 08:58M. Sychra381081191S. Kasnik3712113113
LSep 25 · 08:30M. Sychra215880S. Kasnik331111113
WSep 24 · 02:00M. Sychra44281112113S. Kasnik45111151082
WSep 22 · 19:00M. Sychra51911119113S. Kasnik4211841182
WSep 21 · 10:30M. Sychra43111110113S. Kasnik37881291
WSep 21 · 08:58M. Sychra4291111113S. Kasnik29116841
WSep 21 · 08:30M. Sychra46511811113S. Kasnik3511211472
WSep 12 · 13:01M. Sychra4171111123S. Kasnik311155101
WSep 12 · 11:00M. Sychra4311119123S. Kasnik388911101
WSep 12 · 06:30M. Sychra4111811113S. Kasnik29911451
M. Sychra10
WOct 1 · 18:30M. Pikous1.578640M. Sychra2.251111113WSep 30 · 13:30A. Brazda2.00411119132M. Sychra1.71118811153WSep 30 · 12:30M. Sychra2.10811175113V. Vejvoda1.67116151132WSep 30 · 11:00M. Sychra1.801131111113J. Zuzanek1.9113119892LSep 30 · 10:00A. Brazda2.25114115123M. Sychra1.57511811102WSep 30 · 09:30M. Regner1.808115101M. Sychra1.9111911123WSep 30 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.739570M. Sychra2.001111113WSep 30 · 07:00J. Zuzanek2.107940M. Sychra1.671111113LSep 30 · 06:30M. Sychra1.911110111352M. Regner1.808121311113WSep 29 · 03:00M. Sychra1.6531111113M. Vizek2.10118441
S. Kasnik10
LOct 1 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.2534111182J. Louda1.57111168113WOct 1 · 03:00J. Tazler1.7311115782S. Kasnik2.00991111113WOct 1 · 02:00S. Kasnik1.611311113M. Regner2.2011480LOct 1 · 01:00S. Kasnik1.83491141J. Tazler1.8311119113LOct 1 · 00:00M. Skakal1.441312113S. Kasnik2.63111040LSep 30 · 22:30M. Wagner1.57111199123S. Kasnik2.25521111102LSep 30 · 17:00A. Brazda1.101116113S. Kasnik5.3071490LSep 30 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.256870A. Brazda1.571111113LSep 30 · 15:30M. Pikous1.40891111113S. Kasnik2.7511117362WSep 30 · 14:00S. Kasnik2.2011811113J. Louda1.61411741
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