TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Tomas Motacek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117811116811811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Milan Flesar at 55.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 3–0 Tomas Motacek Tomas Motacek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5655.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Flesar
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Flesar
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1514 vs Motacek 1494
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Motacek 60%
Motacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 50% vs Motacek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -3 · Motacek +2
Flesar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Flesar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Motacek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.666 / Motacek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Flesar)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13227194
Flesar1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 74 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it79% 64 of 81
Motacek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 13 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeFlesar3wins
AwayMotacek0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderFlesar leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar2Motacek1n = 3Flesar took 2 of 3
S2Flesar2Motacek1n = 3Flesar took 2 of 3
S3Flesar3Motacek0n = 3Flesar took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricFlesarMotacekF − MBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.327.0+12.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 450 vs 35 / 6452%54.7%234 / 450 vs 35 / 64Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.67/Motacek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 28 · 15:35M. Flesar331111113T. Motacek208570
WSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar50891111113T. Motacek4011118642
WAug 28 · 19:05M. Flesar351111133T. Motacek2164110
M. Flesar10
LOct 1 · 18:05M. Flesar2.108850L. Vosyka1.671111113LSep 28 · 17:35M. Flesar2.75915391R. Neterda1.40111311113LSep 28 · 16:05R. Neterda1.44111214113M. Flesar2.639101641WSep 28 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008570M. Flesar1.731111113WSep 28 · 14:35M. Flesar1.571713123M. Chmelicek2.251511100LSep 28 · 13:35M. Flesar2.206870J. Ruzicka1.611111113WSep 28 · 12:35M. Flesar2.751111123D. Hons1.4042100WSep 28 · 11:05T. Trnka1.5012560M. Flesar2.501411113WSep 28 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.3651111682M. Flesar3.00116811113LSep 27 · 21:03M. Flesar1.7310780S. Kafka2.001211113
T. Motacek10
WOct 1 · 18:35D. Hons1.83119101192T. Motacek1.83811127113WSep 28 · 17:05T. Motacek1.4411128113M. Chmelicek2.636101191WSep 28 · 16:35M. Chmelicek2.385101431T. Motacek1.53111212113LSep 28 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008570M. Flesar1.731111113WSep 28 · 14:05R. Neterda1.7311771162T. Motacek2.00511114113LSep 27 · 13:16R. Vavricka2.251113113T. Motacek1.5781190WSep 27 · 12:05M. Chmelicek2.38511481T. Motacek1.5311611113LSep 27 · 11:35P. Pesout2.75111011113T. Motacek1.40512891LSep 27 · 10:35T. Motacek1.67101191392R. Vavricka2.101291111113WSep 26 · 17:35T. Motacek1.57113711113M. Chmelicek2.2571111772
Upcoming Matches
M. Flesar
Nothing scheduled
T. Motacek
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