TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Varecha vs David Mikula 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211811117911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timePavel Varecha to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · David Mikula below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Pavel Varecha at 69.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 6–6 David Mikula Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5869.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Varecha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1388 vs Mikula 1361
Varecha
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 100% vs Mikula 20%
Varecha
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 80% vs Mikula 60%
Varecha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha +8 · Mikula +1
Varecha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Varecha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikula form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 1.40 / Mikula 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Varecha)-1.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13226692
Varecha1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 41 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Mikula2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 19 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecha6wins
AwayMikula4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarecha leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha75%6 of 8
AwayMikulan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha8Mikula2n = 10Varecha took 8 of 10
S2Varecha5Mikula5n = 10split evenly
S3Varecha7Mikula3n = 10Varecha took 7 of 10
S4Varecha1Mikula4n = 5Mikula took 4 of 5
S5Varecha2Mikula2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarechaMikulaV − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.734.3+4.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaMikulaBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 237 vs 167 / 35448.5%47.2%115 / 237 vs 167 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VarechaVarecha 1.40/Mikula 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Varecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mikula won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:00P. Varecha30281191D. Mikula4011117113
WSep 29 · 06:00P. Varecha331111113D. Mikula145540
WSep 1 · 07:30P. Varecha331111113D. Mikula206770
WJul 23 · 07:30P. Varecha45111157113D. Mikula4678111192
WJul 15 · 09:30P. Varecha331111113D. Mikula238780
LJul 15 · 08:00P. Varecha54118916102D. Mikula546111114123
WJul 9 · 07:00P. Varecha331111113D. Mikula186660
LJun 4 · 07:30P. Varecha2471070D. Mikula341112113
WMay 19 · 07:00P. Varecha531191111113D. Mikula4781181372
LSep 25 · 09:23P. Varecha4911911992D. Mikula47511911113
P. Varecha10
LOct 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.501111113P. Varecha1.509990WSep 30 · 13:30P. Varecha1.4891111113D. Kolek2.45117791WSep 30 · 12:00P. Varecha1.6711113143E. Sionkala2.108511121WSep 30 · 11:30D. Kolek2.25115981P. Varecha1.5741111113WSep 30 · 10:00P. Varecha2.10121110113J. Stach1.671081291WSep 29 · 09:30P. Varecha1.251181211113A. Virag3.7581114992WSep 29 · 08:00P. Varecha1.301111113A. Virag3.405450WSep 29 · 07:30Z. Zientek1.911312981P. Varecha1.80111411113WSep 29 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531111113D. Mikula2.385540LSep 21 · 12:58I. Taichman1.5711139113P. Varecha2.255111191
D. Mikula10
WOct 2 · 07:00D. Mikula2.50119117113M. Kolek1.5091161172WSep 29 · 08:59Z. Zientek2.2071181192D. Mikula1.61117118113LSep 29 · 08:30D. Mikula1.406850Z. Zientek2.751111113LSep 29 · 07:00D. Mikula1.808950A. Virag1.911111113LSep 29 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531111113D. Mikula2.385540LSep 19 · 21:30D. Mikula1.83137981R. Kvasnicka1.83111111113WSep 19 · 20:00R. Kvasnicka2.00111151172D. Mikula1.73513117113WSep 19 · 19:00A. Schneeberger3.00111011742D. Mikula1.36212911113WSep 19 · 18:30D. Mikula1.4011138113Z. Zientek2.758111141WSep 15 · 09:30D. Tyn1.82911101142D. Mikula1.85119126113
Upcoming Matches
P. Varecha
Nothing scheduled
D. Mikula
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