TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Langer vs Jan Vonasek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181141012511911
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 63.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 25–42 Jan Vonasek Ales Langer has won 25 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4463.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-42 in 67
Vonasek
Correct
gap of 17 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1530 vs Vonasek 1610
Vonasek
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 100% vs Vonasek 60%
Langer
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 60% vs Vonasek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +5 · Vonasek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Langer form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.50 / Vonasek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Vonasek)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224804
Langer2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47
Vonasek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 75 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger3wins
AwayVonasek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger60%3 of 5
AwayVonasek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Langer3Vonasek7n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S3Langer5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Langer1Vonasek6n = 7Vonasek took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerVonasekL − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.236.3−3.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 567 vs 353 / 71748.2%49.2%273 / 567 vs 353 / 717Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekLanger 2.50/Vonasek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 06:55A. Langer50111189113J. Vonasek3917111192
LSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer217950J. Vonasek331111113
LSep 24 · 10:15A. Langer35781191J. Vonasek3911116113
LSep 24 · 06:55A. Langer25112481J. Vonasek3961111113
WSep 21 · 06:55A. Langer4211119113J. Vonasek31471191
LSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer27651151J. Vonasek3611113113
LSep 14 · 13:30A. Langer44111011752J. Vonasek52912911113
LSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2711970J. Vonasek351311113
LSep 9 · 09:55A. Langer28561161J. Vonasek4011117113
WSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer331111113J. Vonasek197480
A. Langer10
WOct 1 · 10:20L. Moravec2.757101111112A. Langer1.40111247133WSep 30 · 10:29A. Langer1.83101111113V. Hejda Jr1.83125471WSep 30 · 08:55A. Langer1.8311115113V. Hejda Jr1.83881161WSep 30 · 07:55A. Langer2.2011911113O. Fiklik1.61911791WSep 30 · 06:55A. Langer2.63111189113J. Vonasek1.4417111192LSep 29 · 13:18A. Langer2.0011119952V. Hejda Jr1.73661111113WSep 29 · 12:20A. Langer1.83512311113V. Hejda Jr1.83111011882LSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer2.507950J. Vonasek1.501111113LSep 29 · 10:20A. Langer2.75911871P. Benes1.4011911113LSep 27 · 09:19M. Kulisek1.30913911113A. Langer3.40111111462
J. Vonasek10
WOct 1 · 10:50J. Vonasek1.6111116113M. Filipek2.20891181WSep 30 · 09:58J. Vonasek1.91411116133O. Fiklik1.80115711112WSep 30 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.919111051J. Vonasek1.8011512113LSep 30 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.7391311111V. Hejda Jr2.0011158133LSep 30 · 06:55A. Langer2.63111189113J. Vonasek1.4417111192WSep 29 · 13:50P. Benes1.36811891J. Vonasek3.0011411113LSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113WSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer2.507950J. Vonasek1.501111113WSep 29 · 10:50V. Hejda Jr2.1061161272J. Vonasek1.671191110113WSep 24 · 10:15J. Vonasek1.5011116113A. Langer2.50781191
Upcoming Matches
A. Langer
J. Vonasek
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