TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Martyniuk vs Eduard Populovskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511511117711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:28 and never touched: 71.1% is still 71.1%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
71.1%
71.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 71.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 15–8 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2871.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Martyniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Martyniuk
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1545 vs Populovskyi 1374
Martyniuk
Wrong
both rated, 171 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 60% vs Populovskyi 0%
Martyniuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 50% vs Populovskyi 30%
Martyniuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk +1 · Populovskyi -5
Populovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Martyniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 1.40 / Populovskyi 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Martyniuk)-0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13223669
Martyniuk1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 65 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Populovskyi2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 49 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartyniuk7wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMartyniuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniuk62.5%5 of 8
AwayPopulovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk8Populovskyi2n = 10Martyniuk took 8 of 10
S2Martyniuk7Populovskyi3n = 10Martyniuk took 7 of 10
S3Martyniuk4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Martyniuk4Populovskyi3n = 7Martyniuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiM − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.837.1+3.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 353 vs 336 / 69452.1%48.4%184 / 353 vs 336 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukMartyniuk 1.40/Populovskyi 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.1%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 24 · 07:05A. Martyniuk47117101182E. Populovskyi50811128113
WSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk4211119113E. Populovskyi36991171
LSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk29114861E. Populovskyi3961111113
WAug 31 · 07:05A. Martyniuk531111812113E. Populovskyi4466111472
WAug 29 · 13:00A. Martyniuk381116113E. Populovskyi2251430
WAug 22 · 13:30A. Martyniuk341211113E. Populovskyi2810990
WJul 23 · 10:35A. Martyniuk3811115113E. Populovskyi34591191
LJul 22 · 09:35A. Martyniuk4311131091E. Populovskyi4461512113
WJun 21 · 20:50A. Martyniuk4391211113E. Populovskyi371110881
A. Martyniuk10
WOct 1 · 07:35A. Martyniuk1.2511911113O. Osadchyi3.75611421LOct 1 · 06:35S. Solomko1.80114611123A. Martyniuk1.91411113102WSep 28 · 11:30V. Bilobrov1.2210960A. Martyniuk4.001211113LSep 28 · 10:00A. Martyniuk2.256850A. Troyan1.571111113WSep 28 · 08:00Y. Volkov1.4091191142A. Martyniuk2.75118114113LSep 28 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov1.61121011113A. Martyniuk2.201012731WSep 28 · 05:00I. Emets2.204730A. Martyniuk1.611111113WSep 25 · 11:00A. Martyniuk2.7511135113O. Karpenko1.404111141LSep 25 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.3611115113A. Martyniuk3.00841181LSep 25 · 08:00A. Martyniuk2.20641181A. Troyan1.6111119113
E. Populovskyi10
WOct 1 · 07:05O. Leonenko1.802580E. Populovskyi1.911111113LSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870LSep 30 · 09:30E. Populovskyi1.80118101152A. Kovalenko1.91611124113LSep 30 · 08:30E. Populovskyi2.25111131252O. Volynets1.57861114113LSep 30 · 07:00E. Populovskyi2.209770O. Shyshman1.611111113LSep 30 · 05:00E. Populovskyi3.4077100S. Solomko1.301111123WSep 24 · 11:35O. Lipeiko1.50871381E. Populovskyi2.50111111113LSep 24 · 10:35S. Solomko1.3011611113E. Populovskyi3.40511571LSep 24 · 09:05O. Leonenko2.0011117113E. Populovskyi1.73841171WSep 24 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.40117101182E. Populovskyi2.75811128113
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