TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matej Svitac vs Roman Merkl 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3111171131113711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Matej Svitac at 64.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 8–6 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3864.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1634 vs Merkl 1490
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 60% vs Merkl 40%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 70% vs Merkl 40%
Svitac
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac +3 · Merkl -1
Svitac
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Svitac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.533 / Merkl 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Svitac)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223649
Svitac1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 25)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 67 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Merkl2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 87 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back39% 41 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back18% 9 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac6wins
AwayMerkl4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac100%4 of 4
AwayMerkl66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Svitac6Merkl4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S3Svitac6Merkl4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S4Svitac6Merkl4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S5Svitac3Merkl3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacMerklS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.241.6+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 399 vs 262 / 55954.9%46.9%219 / 399 vs 262 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.53/Merkl 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac4111118113R. Merkl28851141
WSep 25 · 12:00M. Svitac46711124123R. Merkl471151011102
LJul 19 · 10:15M. Svitac4281151172R. Merkl49118118113
WJun 27 · 18:30M. Svitac4211119113R. Merkl31841181
LJan 24 · 19:00M. Svitac33681181R. Merkl4011117113
WAug 31 · 10:30M. Svitac54118911153R. Merkl49611118132
LAug 25 · 14:45M. Svitac4471111872R. Merkl47116811113
LAug 15 · 16:00M. Svitac4049111152R. Merkl46111149113
WJun 21 · 21:05M. Svitac481151110113R. Merkl4571191262
WJun 21 · 20:00M. Svitac4291111113R. Merkl34119861
M. Svitac10
LOct 1 · 11:15J. Simek2.201211113M. Svitac1.6110380LOct 1 · 10:45M. Svitac1.67781251L. Kolman2.10111110113WSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141WSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 11:00L. Smazik1.83591171M. Svitac1.8311119113LSep 25 · 09:30Z. Kuksa3.25811115113M. Svitac1.3311791182LSep 23 · 12:48V. Lopata2.2011115113M. Svitac1.61941181WSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl2.2011101011102M. Svitac1.61712127123WSep 23 · 10:45M. Svitac1.6111149113V. Lopata2.208121161WSep 23 · 09:45M. Svitac1.91131112113L. Smazik1.801551051
R. Merkl10
LOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:15J. Simek1.44611118142R. Merkl2.63119911163LSep 28 · 08:48R. Merkl1.91861121T. Kanka1.8011114113WSep 28 · 07:45T. Kanka1.83411281R. Merkl1.83111110113LSep 28 · 06:45Z. Kuksa1.61111168113R. Merkl2.2095111142LSep 28 · 05:15P. Orlowski1.73111186113R. Merkl2.0058111182WSep 27 · 21:04R. Merkl1.5711119113F. Kubos2.25651151WSep 27 · 20:00L. Kolman1.5758111192R. Merkl2.25111118113LSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123
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