TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Krutina vs Martin Obraz 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
3111191311119––
Martin Obraz
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Krutina to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krutina above · Martin Obraz below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Lukas Krutina at 54.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krutina 2–1 Martin Obraz Martin Obraz has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5754.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krutina
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutina 1378 vs Obraz 1301
Krutina
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutina 40% vs Obraz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutina 30% vs Obraz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutina -3 · Obraz +1
Krutina
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krutina) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Obraz form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutina 1.80 / Obraz 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krutina)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223608
Krutina1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Obraz1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 28 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKrutina2wins
AwayObraz1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKrutina leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutina1Obraz2n = 3Obraz took 2 of 3
S2Krutina1Obraz2n = 3Obraz took 2 of 3
S3Krutina3Obraz0n = 3Krutina took 3 of 3
S4Krutina2Obraz1n = 3Krutina took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKrutinaObrazK − OBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match46.344.3+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutinaObrazBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 244 vs 147 / 33852.1%43.5%127 / 244 vs 147 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrutinaKrutina 1.80/Obraz 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Krutina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krutina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 1 · 07:00L. Krutina3831113113M. Obraz401191191
WSep 16 · 06:30L. Krutina501071111113M. Obraz4612118962
LJun 2 · 06:30L. Krutina51118119122M. Obraz47511611143
L. Krutina10
WOct 1 · 07:30P. Cizek2.38161171172L. Krutina1.531441113113LOct 1 · 06:00L. Krutina1.617612101P. Moulis2.20111110123LSep 28 · 21:08M. Holub2.00111110113L. Krutina1.73761251LSep 28 · 19:30L. Krutina2.104811111T. Stejskal1.6711117133WSep 28 · 18:30L. Krutina1.83121166113M. Cmil1.83103111172WSep 28 · 17:30L. Krutina1.73111287173M. Holub2.008101111152WSep 25 · 08:33L. Krutina1.67713911113M. Holub2.10111111682LSep 25 · 08:00L. Krutina2.756117101D. Sabuka1.4011411123LSep 25 · 06:30M. Holub2.1011611113L. Krutina1.67711781LSep 25 · 06:00F. Fryml2.251111113L. Krutina1.576650
M. Obraz10
WOct 1 · 05:30P. Cizek1.44117871M. Obraz2.6361111113LSep 30 · 09:08D. Sabuka2.001214123M. Obraz1.731012100WSep 30 · 08:00M. Obraz1.8311711113D. Sabuka1.83811791LSep 30 · 06:30P. Cizek1.611111113M. Obraz2.206890LSep 30 · 06:00A. Dvoracek1.615111112113M. Obraz2.2011741452WSep 24 · 12:13M. Obraz2.2011611113M. Vorel1.61711761LSep 24 · 11:45A. Dvoracek2.201111123M. Obraz1.6189100WSep 24 · 10:45J. Blazek1.73119991M. Obraz2.0051111113LSep 24 · 09:15M. Vorel1.6191111113M. Obraz2.20115571LSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080
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