TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Benes vs Petr Dvorak 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8118111141412611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Petr Dvorak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 96 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Pavel Benes at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 8–2 Petr Dvorak Petr Dvorak has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Benes
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1677 vs Dvorak 1654
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Dvorak 80%
Dvorak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 60% vs Dvorak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -2 · Dvorak +4
Dvorak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.80 / Dvorak 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221704
Benes1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 77 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it75% 49 of 65
Dvorak1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 3 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 5
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes8wins
AwayDvorak2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%3 of 3
AwayDvorak28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S2Benes9Dvorak1n = 10Benes took 9 of 10
S3Benes8Dvorak2n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S4Benes5Dvorak3n = 8Benes took 5 of 8
S5Benes2Dvorak1n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesDvorakB − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.135.4+6.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 548 vs 30 / 6147.8%49.2%262 / 548 vs 30 / 61Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.80/Dvorak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 7 · 15:55P. Benes4051311113P. Dvorak391111891
LJul 2 · 18:03P. Benes358111061P. Dvorak3911512113
WJul 2 · 15:55P. Benes4361511113P. Dvorak341113461
WSep 30 · 19:25P. Benes361411113P. Dvorak2312560
WSep 1 · 19:55P. Benes53912911123P. Dvorak501110118102
LAug 26 · 18:05P. Benes4561111982P. Dvorak45114811113
WAug 26 · 16:25P. Benes4291111113P. Dvorak32116961
WJul 27 · 15:55P. Benes331111113P. Dvorak188640
WJul 20 · 09:55P. Benes51911117133P. Dvorak48118711112
WJul 20 · 08:55P. Benes43111011113P. Dvorak26312741
P. Benes10
LSep 30 · 14:20M. Brozek1.838121011113P. Benes1.83111012872LSep 29 · 13:50P. Benes1.36811891J. Vonasek3.0011411113WSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113LSep 29 · 11:50P. Benes1.53138711122V. Hejda Jr2.381111115143WSep 29 · 10:20A. Langer2.75911871P. Benes1.4011911113WSep 28 · 22:25A. Kosacky1.67119161042P. Benes2.103111412113LSep 28 · 21:25A. Kosacky1.7391111113P. Benes2.00116881WSep 28 · 20:25P. Benes1.53121111113M. Kulisek2.38148771WSep 28 · 18:55O. Fiklik2.1012811872P. Benes1.671011611113WSep 23 · 14:02P. Benes1.33111116113D. Vesecky3.25761891
P. Dvorak10
WSep 30 · 14:50P. Dvorak1.6111611113D. Hyza2.20211451WSep 27 · 18:34P. Dvorak1.801111113J. Benak1.915740WSep 27 · 17:25J. Kocab2.20691161P. Dvorak1.6111115113WSep 27 · 16:25P. Dvorak1.831111113J. Benak1.839780LSep 27 · 14:55M. Prochazka1.8311711113P. Dvorak1.83911771LSep 26 · 22:28M. Brozek1.53111184113P. Dvorak2.3888111132WSep 26 · 20:55P. Dvorak1.6771111113A. Kosacky2.10118671WSep 26 · 19:55P. Dvorak1.80118411113M. Prochazka1.9161111792LSep 26 · 18:55P. Dvorak1.832260M. Brozek1.831111113LAug 26 · 16:55M. Kulisek1.7391111113P. Dvorak2.00119481
Upcoming Matches
P. Benes
P. Dvorak
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