TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Laurent Lasota vs Jan Przybyla 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4116111210811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:31 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeLaurent Lasota to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLaurent Lasota above · Jan Przybyla below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Laurent Lasota at 55.4%
73 points played in total.
H2H Laurent Lasota 3–5 Jan Przybyla Laurent Lasota has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3155.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lasota
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Przybyla
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lasota 1472 vs Przybyla 1458
Lasota
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lasota 20% vs Przybyla 80%
Przybyla
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lasota 20% vs Przybyla 70%
Przybyla
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lasota -4 · Przybyla -1
Lasota
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Lasota) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przybyla form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLasota 1.666 / Przybyla 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Lasota)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221067
Lasota1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite50% won 50 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it76% 32 of 42
Przybyla2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 51 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back28% 16 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLasota3wins
AwayPrzybyla5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderPrzybyla leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLasotan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPrzybyla83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lasota2Przybyla6n = 8Przybyla took 6 of 8
S2Lasota4Przybyla4n = 8split evenly
S3Lasota4Przybyla4n = 8split evenly
S4Lasota3Przybyla2n = 5Lasota took 3 of 5
S5Lasota1Przybyla2n = 3Przybyla took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricLasotaPrzybylaL − PBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match38.639.2−0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLasotaPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 298 vs 235 / 45949%51.2%146 / 298 vs 235 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LasotaLasota 1.67/Przybyla 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Lasota · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Przybyla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 10 · 14:40L. Lasota49711101292J. Przybyla491151210113
WSep 7 · 08:10L. Lasota4011711113J. Przybyla29311691
WAug 26 · 05:45L. Lasota47511811123J. Przybyla45119114102
LJul 10 · 06:15L. Lasota182790J. Przybyla331111113
LJul 3 · 09:10L. Lasota381091181J. Przybyla4312119113
WJul 3 · 08:10L. Lasota361211133J. Przybyla29108110
LJul 1 · 08:15L. Lasota2611960J. Przybyla351311113
LApr 24 · 07:45L. Lasota55916111092J. Przybyla511114312113
L. Lasota10
LSep 30 · 19:40L. Lasota2.001016731D. Branny1.73121411113LSep 30 · 18:40L. Lasota1.807280D. Osvald1.911111113LSep 29 · 20:43D. Branny1.6713911113L. Lasota2.101111861LSep 29 · 19:45L. Lasota1.83451181D. Branny1.8311117113LSep 29 · 18:45L. Lasota1.7381011111F. Theodor2.0011125133LSep 29 · 17:45L. Lasota1.679890V. Reska2.101111113WSep 28 · 12:40D. Vitasek1.7311470L. Lasota2.001311113WSep 28 · 12:15J. Volny1.808750L. Lasota1.911111113LSep 28 · 11:15L. Lasota1.801171141D. Vitasek1.9113116113LSep 28 · 09:45P. Vinansky1.401111113L. Lasota2.755570
J. Przybyla10
WSep 30 · 19:10J. Przybyla2.00411711123D. Branny1.73116111102LSep 26 · 21:20J. Przybyla1.5711115682P. Jokiel2.25721111113WSep 26 · 19:45K. Zeman1.80381161J. Przybyla1.9111114113WSep 26 · 19:15P. Jokiel1.9131111752J. Przybyla1.80119811113WSep 26 · 18:15J. Przybyla1.5311713113J. Vanous2.387111131WSep 26 · 17:19T. Ogrocki1.801189111J. Przybyla1.9181111133WSep 26 · 15:45V. Reska1.7361311862J. Przybyla2.001111811113LSep 26 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.671291213113J. Przybyla2.101011141192WSep 26 · 14:15J. Przybyla1.57911117113M. Lorenc2.2511881152LSep 25 · 21:10O. Vaclahovsky1.8311117113J. Przybyla1.83861181
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.