TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lyman vs Andrii Vasylets 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611119511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:01 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeAndrii Vasylets to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Andrii Vasylets @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Andrii Vasylets below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Andrii Vasylets at 58.6%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 35–33 Andrii Vasylets Andrii Vasylets has won 33 of their 68 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 06:0158.6%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 10.7pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vasylets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-33 in 68
Lyman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1416 vs Vasylets 1642
Vasylets
Correct
both rated, 226 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 40% vs Vasylets 60%
Vasylets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 40% vs Vasylets 60%
Vasylets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman -2 · Vasylets -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Vasylets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 2.625 / Vasylets 1.444
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vasylets)-10.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219677
Lyman2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 69 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 82
Vasylets1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 31 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 26 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman4wins
AwayVasylets6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVasylets leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLyman60%3 of 5
AwayVasylets80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman5Vasylets5n = 10split evenly
S2Lyman6Vasylets4n = 10Lyman took 6 of 10
S3Lyman3Vasylets7n = 10Vasylets took 7 of 10
S4Lyman1Vasylets6n = 7Vasylets took 6 of 7
S5Lyman2Vasylets1n = 3Lyman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanVasyletsL − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.638.3−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanVasyletsBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 623 vs 229 / 51443.3%44.6%270 / 623 vs 229 / 514Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VasyletsLyman 2.63/Vasylets 1.44
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Vasylets · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Andrii Vasylets @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
1–3
Vasylets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 14:30O. Lyman2596100A. Vasylets341111123
LAug 26 · 11:00O. Lyman35119871A. Vasylets4181111113
LAug 22 · 13:30O. Lyman174850A. Vasylets331111113
LAug 19 · 08:00O. Lyman31914261A. Vasylets45111211113
LJun 20 · 12:30O. Lyman32512781A. Vasylets43111011113
WJun 6 · 16:00O. Lyman45111157113A. Vasylets4359111172
WMay 30 · 13:30O. Lyman4381211123A. Vasylets3811107101
WMay 23 · 12:30O. Lyman331111113A. Vasylets154470
LMay 16 · 15:00O. Lyman4411611882A. Vasylets46811511113
WMay 9 · 16:00O. Lyman511111108113A. Vasylets4578121172
O. Lyman10
LSep 30 · 05:00O. Lyman4.33117991O. Syksa1.2081111113LSep 29 · 11:30M. Hubenko1.33591911113O. Lyman3.25111117462WSep 29 · 10:00O. Lyman2.6311111114113D. Kuzmenko1.44134131232WSep 29 · 08:00S. Miroshnychenko3.259980O. Lyman1.331111113LSep 29 · 06:00O. Ziakun1.571111123O. Lyman2.2546100WSep 29 · 05:00S. Maliuk1.5354100O. Lyman2.381111123LSep 28 · 11:30O. Lyman2.501299101S. Maliuk1.50101111123WSep 28 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.3341181592O. Lyman3.251141113113LSep 28 · 07:30O. Syksa1.171151112153O. Lyman4.50611514132LSep 28 · 06:30O. Lyman2.506790D. Kuzmenko1.501111113
A. Vasylets10
LSep 30 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.281111113A. Vasylets3.507680LSep 26 · 17:34A. Vasylets1.8069111182O. Kurylenko1.91111196113WSep 26 · 15:30O. Kurylenko3.50471121A. Vasylets1.2811113113WSep 26 · 14:30A. Vasylets1.671111123O. Lyman2.1096100WSep 26 · 13:30D. Prylepa1.83111371A. Vasylets1.8311911113WSep 26 · 12:30A. Vasylets2.5011112113M. Hubenko1.50681151LSep 22 · 17:00A. Vasylets2.385470M. Hubenko1.531111113WSep 22 · 16:00A. Vasylets2.381111113A. Lushchyk1.537750LSep 22 · 15:30A. Vasylets2.638121191S. Chuhai1.4411148113WSep 22 · 14:30S. Chuhai1.446711121A. Vasylets2.6311116143
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