TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Frantisek Schmidtmayer vs Miroslav Vana 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1125111210511711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:22 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Miroslav Vana below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Miroslav Vana at 58.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 5–7 Miroslav Vana Frantisek Schmidtmayer has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2258.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Vana
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1437 vs Vana 1477
Vana
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 80% vs Vana 20%
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 60% vs Vana 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer +1 · Vana -3
Vana
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Vana) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vana form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 2.20 / Vana 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vana)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219108
Schmidtmayer2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 35 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Vana1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 24)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 50 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer4wins
AwayVana6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVana leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer75%3 of 4
AwayVana83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer4Vana6n = 10Vana took 6 of 10
S2Schmidtmayer5Vana5n = 10split evenly
S3Schmidtmayer5Vana5n = 10split evenly
S4Schmidtmayer5Vana5n = 10split evenly
S5Schmidtmayer2Vana3n = 5Vana took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerVanaS − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.6−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 444 vs 188 / 35646.9%52.8%208 / 444 vs 188 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VanaSchmidtmayer 2.20/Vana 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer4184111262M. Vana461111310113
WAug 20 · 11:45F. Schmidtmayer4211119113M. Vana34861191
LAug 13 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer30771151M. Vana4211119113
LAug 9 · 09:15F. Schmidtmayer4579111172M. Vana50111189113
WJul 24 · 12:29F. Schmidtmayer4111118113M. Vana33861181
LJul 24 · 11:30F. Schmidtmayer37911981M. Vana4211911113
LJul 22 · 09:15F. Schmidtmayer281121051M. Vana4391112113
WJul 20 · 11:30F. Schmidtmayer46115118113M. Vana4691191162
WJul 8 · 12:18F. Schmidtmayer41511311113M. Vana4411911672
LJul 8 · 11:15F. Schmidtmayer4571111792M. Vana46116711113
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83541111133M. Drabek1.83111183112WSep 26 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer1.57611114113J. Mejzlik2.2511921192LSep 26 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer2.204770A. Dvoracek1.611111113WSep 25 · 16:29T. Stejskal3.254111311F. Schmidtmayer1.33111311113WSep 25 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer1.441111113T. Stejskal2.637560WSep 25 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.67111182K. Polak2.103780WSep 25 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.33119711113M. Melisek3.2571111862WSep 20 · 20:15L. Tuma2.10151211022F. Schmidtmayer1.6713101112113LSep 20 · 19:15F. Schmidtmayer1.91931271K. Farsky1.80111110113
M. Vana10
LSep 30 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.201111126113M. Vana1.6179141182LSep 24 · 20:34M. Vana1.4012920M. Barton2.751411113LSep 24 · 20:00M. Drabek2.10781111113M. Vana1.6711114652LSep 24 · 19:00J. Marhol2.2012119113M. Vana1.611081171WSep 24 · 17:30M. Barton2.10451171M. Vana1.6711116113LSep 22 · 17:08O. Plyska1.61111111143M. Vana2.201138121WSep 22 · 16:00M. Vana2.007111213113O. Plyska1.73116101542WSep 22 · 14:30M. Hasman2.50113951M. Vana1.5091111113WSep 22 · 14:00K. Polak2.251221091M. Vana1.57101112113WSep 21 · 20:33M. Vana1.57111169113J. Vasek2.2567111132
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