TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Pawlik vs Ivan Heuman 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911118811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:01 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Ivan Heuman below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Ivan Heuman at 61.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 2–5 Ivan Heuman Dominik Pawlik has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:01What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heuman
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Heuman
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1439 vs Heuman 1574
Heuman
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 0% vs Heuman 40%
Heuman
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 10% vs Heuman 50%
Heuman
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -6 · Heuman +1
Pawlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Heuman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heuman form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 2.20 / Heuman 1.61
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Heuman)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13213812
Pawlik2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 52 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Heuman1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite44% won 48 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePawlik2wins
AwayHeuman5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderHeuman leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHeuman80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik2Heuman5n = 7Heuman took 5 of 7
S2Pawlik0Heuman7n = 7Heuman took 7 of 7
S3Pawlik4Heuman3n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7
S4Pawlik2Heuman3n = 5Heuman took 3 of 5
S5Pawlik2Heuman1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricPawlikHeumanP − HBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match36.041.1−5.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 506 vs 216 / 43948.4%49.2%245 / 506 vs 216 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanPawlik 2.20/Heuman 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 29 · 07:10D. Pawlik35791181I. Heuman4111118113
LSep 24 · 08:15D. Pawlik354101561I. Heuman47111213113
WSep 21 · 08:48D. Pawlik45661111113I. Heuman3811111962
LSep 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik4111861152I. Heuman46811115113
LMay 26 · 09:40D. Pawlik2611960I. Heuman351311113
WFeb 24 · 06:40D. Pawlik45114118113I. Heuman4881191192
LDec 4 · 12:45D. Pawlik259970I. Heuman331111113
D. Pawlik10
LSep 29 · 05:40J. Travnicek1.5741211113D. Pawlik2.251110991LSep 28 · 16:38K. Kleprlik1.361111133D. Pawlik3.0074110LSep 28 · 16:10A. Kanak1.671112173D. Pawlik2.10810150LSep 28 · 15:10D. Pawlik1.911171071R. Benes1.8071112113LSep 28 · 13:40K. Kleprlik1.571111113D. Pawlik2.259490LSep 27 · 12:45D. Pawlik1.938670E. Precek1.781111113WSep 27 · 12:15E. Precek1.809101381D. Pawlik1.91111211113LSep 27 · 11:15D. Pawlik2.009511101L. Dzida1.7311117123LSep 27 · 09:45D. Velky Jr1.571113910113D. Pawlik2.25711111282LSep 25 · 08:39D. Pawlik2.00461181E. Precek1.7311118113
I. Heuman10
WSep 29 · 06:10I. Heuman2.20115711113R. Benes1.6141111592LSep 26 · 20:45I. Heuman1.4415761192R. Solle2.631311119113LSep 26 · 19:40I. Heuman1.8311138792D. Vitasek1.837111111113WSep 26 · 18:40I. Heuman1.5011119113R. Solle2.50881181LSep 26 · 17:40I. Heuman1.6771171392K. Kleprlik2.101191111113LSep 24 · 09:15I. Heuman1.73119781J. Skvrna2.0091111113WSep 24 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.914101561I. Heuman1.80111213113WSep 24 · 07:15I. Heuman2.20117117113J. Krupnik1.6181141122WSep 24 · 05:45J. Skvrna1.73119441I. Heuman2.0061111113LSep 21 · 08:48I. Heuman1.7311111962D. Pawlik2.00661111113
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